大汶河流域2001—2022年暴雨洪水特征及其关系分析

Characteristics of heavy rainfall and floods in the Dawen River Basin from 2001 to 2022 and their relationship analysis

  • 摘要: 科学认识流域实际发生暴雨洪水特征,总结洪水特征及其对致洪暴雨特征响应关系和产汇流规律,对流域洪水精准精细模拟与预报具有重要意义。以大汶河流域为研究区域,基于2001—2022年实测降雨洪水时间序列资料,整理了场次暴雨洪水,选取降水空间矩、洪水集中度等指标表征暴雨洪水特征,采用Kendall秩相关分析研究暴雨洪水响应关系,并对流域降水-径流关系进行统计分析。结果表明:(1)大汶河洪水的流域降雨量呈东多西少特征,洪水相应的暴雨事件常覆盖全流域1/3~1/2的面积,暴雨中心多集中在上游大中型水库附近;(2)北支牟汶河子流域洪水总量统计均值大,是大汶河洪水的主要来源,其洪水特征值与致洪暴雨强度呈弱正相关,但与一阶降水空间矩呈负相关,表明子流域内部具有较强的调蓄能力,而南支柴汶河子流域则相反;(3)大汶河流域洪水产流表现为蓄满产流为主、兼有超渗产流的特点,其中大戴区间近22年降雨事件中产流很少,这与其区间特殊的富水性地质条件及灌区引水密切相关,需在流域水文模拟与洪水预报时特别关注。

     

    Abstract: Understanding the characteristics of actual heavy rainfall and floods in a river basin, summarizing the characteristics of floods and their response to flood-causing rainfall, and studying the runoff generation and flow rules are of great significance for accurate and detailed simulation and prediction of floods in the basin. Taking the Dawen River Basin as the study area, based on the observed rainfall and flood time series data from 2001 to 2022, the characteristics of episodic heavy rainfall and floods were analyzed. Indicators such as precipitation spatial moments and flood concentration were selected to characterize the characteristics of heavy rainfall and floods. The Kendall rank correlation analysis was used to study the response relationship between heavy rainfall and floods, and the precipitation-runoff relationship in the basin was statistically analyzed. The results show that: (1) The rainfall in the Dawen River Basin exhibits a characteristic of more rainfall in the east and less in the west, and the heavy rainfall events corresponding to floods often cover 1/3 to 1/2 of the entire basin, with the center of heavy rainfall mostly concentrated near large and medium-sized reservoirs in the upper reaches. (2) The total amount of floods in the sub-basin of the North Branch of the Mouwen River is relatively large and is the main source of floods in the Dawen River Basin. The flood characteristics are weakly positively correlated with the intensity of flood-causing rainfall, but negatively correlated with the first-order precipitation spatial moment, indicating that the sub-basin has strong storage capacity. In contrast, the sub-basin of the South Branch of the Chaiwen River shows the opposite trend. (3) The flood runoff in the Dawen River Basin is mainly controlled by storage runoff with some infiltration runoff. In the past 22 years, there has been very little runoff in the Da-Dai section, which is closely related to the special water-rich geological conditions and irrigation water diversion in this section. Therefore, special attention should be paid to this section in hydrological simulation and flood forecasting in the basin.

     

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