典型卫星降水产品在紫坪铺流域洪水模拟中的适用性评估

Assessment of the applicability of typical satellite precipitation products to flood simulation in the Zipingpu Basin

  • 摘要: 卫星降水产品能够提供高时空分辨率的降水资料,为探讨卫星降水产品在地形复杂地区的适用性,本文基于岷江上游紫坪铺水库控制流域2016—2024年间的实测降水及径流资料,系统评估了GSMaP_Gauge、IMERG-Final和CMORPH三种卫星降水产品及其在HEC-HMS水文模型模拟洪水中的表现。结果表明:在日尺度上,IMERG-Final降水产品表现最优,其与地面实测降水资料相关性最高(平均ICC=0.59),平均绝对误差更低(平均IMAE=2.49 mm),并且降水事件探测能力最强,探测率普遍维持在0.85以上,而CMORPH,GSMaP_Gauge表现相对较弱;在小时尺度上,三种降水产品的相关系数均较低,其中GSMaP_Gauge的ICC相对最高,且误差较小,降水事件探测能力优于IMERG-Final和CMORPH。综合来看,选取表现较优的GSMaP_Gauge与IMERG-Final降水产品作为HEC-HMS模型的驱动数据。在评估了HEC-HMS模型在研究区具有良好适用性的基础上(率定期平均确定性系数为0.75,验证期为0.79),以实测降水驱动模型率定的参数为基准,其中以GSMaP_Gauge降水产品驱动的洪水模拟效果较好,洪峰误差合格率为87.5%,洪量误差合格率达100%,平均确定性系数为0.70,洪水过程模拟效果显著优于IMERG-Final产品,略差于实测降水模拟效果。研究为卫星降水产品在缺乏降水实测资料地区洪水模拟中的应用提供了技术参考。

     

    Abstract: Satellite precipitation products provide precipitation information with broad spatial coverage, relatively high spatiotemporal resolution and convenient accessibility. Therefore, they play a significant role in addressing the limitations and uneven spatial distribution of observational data from sparse ground-based rain gauge networks. To investigate the applicability of satellite precipitation products in topographically complex regions, this study selected the catchment controlled by the Zipingpu Reservoir in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River as the study area. Based on observed precipitation and discharge data collected from 2016 to 2024, the performance of three satellite precipitation products, namely GSMaP_Gauge, IMERG-Final, and CMORPH, was systematically evaluated. The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model is a semi-distributed rainfall–runoff model suitable for rainfall–runoff simulation and flood forecasting. The applicability of these satellite precipitation products for precipitation monitoring and flood simulation was further assessed using HEC-HMS. To obtain a comprehensive understanding of product performance, the evaluation incorporated both continuous statistical indicators, which describe the agreement and errors in precipitation amounts, and categorical indicators, which measure the ability to identify the occurrence of precipitation events. The results show that there are significant differences in the accuracy of the three satellite precipitation products across different temporal scales. At the daily scale, IMERG-Final exhibits the best overall performance. It has the highest correlation with ground-observed precipitation, with a mean ICC of 0.59. It also shows a relatively low IMAE of 2.49 mm. In addition, IMERG-Final demonstrates the strongest ability to detect precipitation events, with the probability of detection generally remaining above 0.85. In comparison, the daily-scale performance of CMORPH and GSMaP_Gauge is relatively weaker. At the hourly scale, the correlation coefficients of all three satellite precipitation products decrease, indicating that the spatial heterogeneity, local variability, and short-duration characteristics of precipitation in complex mountainous terrain pose substantial challenges to satellite precipitation retrieval. Among the three products, GSMaP_Gauge shows the highest ICC and relatively low errors at the hourly scale. Its ability to detect precipitation events is also better than that of IMERG-Final and CMORPH. Therefore, GSMaP_Gauge demonstrates a comparatively stronger capability for representing hourly precipitation processes in the study basin. The HEC-HMS model shows good applicability in the Zipingpu Reservoir-controlled catchment. The mean coefficients of determination during the calibration and validation periods are 0.75 and 0.79, respectively, indicating that the model can reasonably reproduce the observed flood processes when driven by ground-observed precipitation. Considering the results of precipitation evaluation at both daily and hourly scales, GSMaP_Gauge and IMERG-Final were selected as precipitation inputs for subsequent flood simulations. The model parameters calibrated using observed precipitation were retained, so that the impacts of satellite precipitation inputs on simulated flood processes could be directly compared. In flood simulations using the HEC-HMS model driven by satellite precipitation data, the GSMaP_Gauge precipitation product yields better simulation results than those obtained using IMERG-Final as the driving data. The qualification rate for peak discharge errors reaches 87.5%, while the qualification rate for flood volume errors reaches 100%. Furthermore, the average coefficient of determination is 0.70. The flood simulations using GSMaP_Gauge are clearly better than those using IMERG-Final, although GSMaP_Gauge still performs slightly worse than simulations driven by observed precipitation. Overall, the study results indicate that the applicability of satellite precipitation products in watersheds with complex topography varies significantly depending on product type, temporal scale, and local meteorological and topographic factors. To select an appropriate product, a comprehensive precipitation assessment combined with hydrological model-based validation is required. This study provides a technical reference for the use of satellite precipitation products in flood simulation, hydrological forecasting, and water resources management in areas where ground-based precipitation observations are lacking.

     

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