山区小流域小时强降水空间分异特征对洪水过程的影响

The impacts of spatial differentiation characteristics of hourly heavy precipitation in small mountainous catchments on flood processes

  • 摘要: 全球气候变化背景下,小时强降水事件频发,其引发的水文气象灾害严重影响社会经济发展。然而,少有研究在小时尺度分析强降水的空间分异特征对中小流域洪水过程的影响。本研究以长江中下游山区小流域——淦河流域为研究对象,使用流域内4个雨量站2000—2023年的小时尺度降水资料和2000—2019年的小时尺度径流资料,使用百分位阈值及数理统计方法,分析淦河流域小时强降水多时空尺度的变化特征及其对流域洪水过程的影响。结果表明:(1)淦河流域内小时强降水的阈值范围为14.50~20.00 mm/h。小时强降水指数呈上升趋势,其中万家、大桥站小时强降水指数上升显著(P < 0.05),流域小时强降水主要发生于6—7月。(2)日内尺度上,淦河流域小时强降水多发生于午后。大桥站小时强降水频次、降水量和贡献率峰值出现时间早于其余站点,而万家站小时强降水峰现时间早于其余站点。(3)流域极端降水-径流事件集中发生于6—7月。自2013年以后,流域极端事件明显增加,极端洪水风险持续上升。(4)相较于全部降水事件,小时强降水事件的平均洪峰和滞时增加约64%~91%和19%~58%,降雨中心为下游时洪峰增长和时滞延长最为显著。(5)单点强降水事件降水中心的差异会显著影响洪峰大小;分布均匀的小时强降水会使洪峰成倍增长,是导致流域极端洪水的主要降水类型。本研究可为进一步理解山区流域小时强降水-洪水响应机制提供思路,为加强流域小时强降水事件的监测预警和防洪减灾能力提供理论参考。

     

    Abstract: In the context of global climate change, the frequency and intensity of Hourly Heavy Precipitation (HHP) events have been on the rise worldwide, and the hydrometeorological disasters they induce are posing serious threats to sustainable socio-economic development. However, there is still a lack of research examining how the spatial differentiation of heavy precipitation at the hourly scale influences flood processes in small and medium-sized watersheds. To address this gap, the present study focuses on the Ganhe River Watershed (GRW), a representative small mountainous basin located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Long-term (2000–2023) hourly precipitation datasets from four rain gauges and hourly runoff records for 2000–2019 were utilized. A percentile threshold method, applied on a station-by-station basis, was used to define HHP events. Statistical techniques, including trend analysis and seasonal/diurnal cycle analysis, were then employed to examine the multiscale spatiotemporal characteristics of HHP. Furthermore, the influence of HHP spatial distribution on flood processes was assessed by comparing different scenarios of rainfall center location and rainfall pattern. The results indicate that the 98.5th percentile serves as a suitable threshold for defining HHP in the GRW, with station-specific thresholds ranging from 14.50 to 20.00 mm/h, highlighting the pronounced spatial heterogeneity of extreme precipitation regimes across this relatively small basin. In terms of long-term trends, the majority of HHP indices exhibit an upward tendency, and the increasing trends at Wanjia and Daqiao stations are statistically significant at the 0.05 level, suggesting that HHP is intensifying at local scales. In terms of monthly distribution, HHP primarily occurred in June and July. The occurrences of HHP within the day also varied spatially. The peak value of HHP at Wanjia station primarily occurred at 10:00, which is earlier than at other stations, while the peak values of frequency, amount, and contribution at Daqiao station mainly occurred at 13:00, which is earlier than at other stations. Correspondingly, extreme rainfall–runoff events in the basin are also concentrated in June and July, and since 2013 there has been a marked increase in such events, indicating a continuous escalation in extreme flood risk. Compared with all precipitation events, under HHP conditions, the amplification of flood peak discharge and the prolongation of lag time are most prominent when the rainfall center is situated downstream, with increases of 91% and 58%, respectively, highlighting the critical role of storm center location. In the GRW, when an HHP event is recorded exclusively at a single rain gauge station, the spatial position of the storm center within the basin exerts a significant influence on the resulting flood peak magnitude; the location, whether in the headwater area or downstream, can produce markedly different flood magnitudes. Moreover, compared with such single-station events, floods caused by simultaneous multi-station HHP undergo a substantial amplification in both peak discharge and total flood volume, increasing by several times, which reveals a highly nonlinear basin response and underscores the critical role of storm spatial coverage in generating extreme floods. Among various rainfall patterns, the spatially uniform hourly heavy precipitation pattern produces the highest flood peak and represents the primary precipitation type responsible for extreme floods in the GRW. In summary, this study elucidates the spatial differentiation characteristics of HHP in the GRW and their substantial impacts on flood processes. The findings provide valuable insights for deepening the understanding of HHP–flood response mechanisms in mountainous watersheds and offer a theoretical reference for enhancing real-time monitoring, early warning, and flood disaster reduction strategies in the basin. These results highlight the necessity of considering the spatial heterogeneity of HHP in operational flood forecasting and risk mitigation. The study thus contributes to both theoretical knowledge and practical strategies for coping with increasing extreme precipitation in mountainous basins.

     

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