路洁,刘晶,刘明阳,等. 近55年京津冀地区降水多尺度分析[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2020(6):23-31. doi: 10.12170/20191019001
引用本文: 路洁,刘晶,刘明阳,等. 近55年京津冀地区降水多尺度分析[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2020(6):23-31. doi: 10.12170/20191019001
(LU Jie, LIU Jing, LIU Mingyang, et al. Multi-scale analysis of precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in the past 55 years[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2020(6): 23-31. (in Chinese)). doi: 10.12170/20191019001
Citation: (LU Jie, LIU Jing, LIU Mingyang, et al. Multi-scale analysis of precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in the past 55 years[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2020(6): 23-31. (in Chinese)). doi: 10.12170/20191019001

近55年京津冀地区降水多尺度分析

Multi-scale analysis of precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in the past 55 years

  • 摘要: 以京津冀地区25个气象站点1964—2018年的逐日降水数据为基础资料,采用距平法、Mann-Kendall检验法、线性拟合及空间插值分析等方法,从多年平均降水、年内降水分配和极端降水3个尺度分析京津冀地区降水的变化特征。结果表明:(1)京津冀地区年平均降水呈不显著减小的趋势,降水变差系数为0.14~0.41。年平均降水空间上表现为“东多西少、南多北少”的特点,其中燕山山地和海河平原降水离散程度相对较高。(2)京津冀地区年内降水呈现出集中化趋势,降水主要集中在7月下旬,并呈不显著提前化趋势。降水集中度在空间上表现为由东北向西南方向逐渐减少;降水集中期在空间上呈现出由北向南逐渐增强的趋势。(3)京津冀地区极端降水在129.57~252.68 mm之间波动,约占总降水的28.6%~47.9%。极端降水与年均降水的空间分布大致相同,仅有其中7个气象站点的变化趋势稳定。

     

    Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data of 25 meteorological stations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 1964 to 2018, we use the method of anomaly, Mann-Kendall test, linear fitting and spatial interpolation analysis to obtain precipitation from many years and precipitation during the year. And the precipitation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is analyzed in three aspects: average precipitation, annual precipitation distribution and extreme precipitation. The results show that: (1) The average annual precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration fluctuates significantly, showing no significant decrease. The space is characterized by “less east, more west, less south and less north”, and the precipitation variation coefficient is between 0.14-0.41. Yanshan Mountain and Haihe Plain have larger varying coefficients and higher dispersion. (2) The precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration shows a trend of concentration during the year. The spatial performance is characterized by a gradual decrease from the northeast to the southwest. The precipitation is mainly concentrated in the late July, and the concentration period shows a trend of not significantly premature. The space shows a trend of increasing from the north to the south. (3) The extreme precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is 129.57-252.68 mm, accounting for 28.6%-47.9% of the total precipitation. The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation is the same as that of annual precipitation, and only 7 meteorological stations have a stable trend.

     

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