吴良骥. 渗流场中点预报模型及其可靠度分析[J]. 水利水运工程学报, 1996, (4).
引用本文: 吴良骥. 渗流场中点预报模型及其可靠度分析[J]. 水利水运工程学报, 1996, (4).
Wu Liangji. Prediction model of point in seepage field and its reliability[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 1996, (4).
Citation: Wu Liangji. Prediction model of point in seepage field and its reliability[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 1996, (4).

渗流场中点预报模型及其可靠度分析

Prediction model of point in seepage field and its reliability

  • 摘要: 建立在频波分析、相关分析和概率统计分析基础上的点预报模型,应用两个样本均值差显著度和多个样本均方差显著度的测定方法,对原观设备的可靠度、灵敏性;对观测资料的正确性、分散性和可靠度;对渗流场的突变和缓变等均作出了判断。动态的点预报模型不仅给出点预报值的期望值和可能变化的范围,还给出了预报值的可靠度和显著度,并估算了预报模型对样本总体模型的偏差。

     

    Abstract: This paper gives an integrated prediction model of point in seepage field and its reliability analysis,which is established on the analysis of frequency-wave,relativity and probability.Two methods for determing the significance of the mean deviation in two samples and the significance of the mean square deviation of several samples,are applied to give a scientific judgement and objective index for reliability and sensitivity of the observation equipment, reliability and precision of the observation data,geo-deformation due to seepage force in the seepage region.The prediction model given in this paper is a dynamic model which not only predicts mean and range of seepage parameters under some conditions,but also gives reliability and significance of the prediction value and the deviation of the prediction model

     

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