Abstract: Taking a gross amount of water resources, water supply, water demand, land area and population census in Dalian city as the basic data, making references to the analyses of various index systems of the water resources in China, and based on the water resources, social economy and ecological environment in the region, an evaluation index system for the carrying capacity of water resources in Dalian city has been developed in this paper. Using SPSS factor analysis to determine the weight of the evaluation index combined with a fuzzy variable assessment model, the carrying capacity of water resources in Dalian city from 2000 to 2013 has been comprehensively evaluated. And by the aid of the basic data collection and processing, prediction and assessment of the carrying capacity of water resources in Dalian city in 2020 have been made too in this study. The analysis results of this study show that the cumulative variance contribution rate of two factors of water use for environment and repeated utilization of industrial water has reached 85%, which can reflect the major carrying capacity of water resources in Dalian city, so as to calculate the weight. It is found from the variable fuzzy assessment method that the rating of the carrying capacity of water resources in Dalian city from 2000 to 2013 is Grode 1~ Grode 2, which indicates a consideral development scale in the utilization of the water resources in recent fourteen years. The supply demand of water resources can basically meet the requirements of development of the social economy and ecological environment in Dalian city. It is necessary to strengthen the water resources management and utilization of water resources, and improve the carrying capacity of water resources in order to ensure the sustainable supply of water resources. The rating of the carrying capacity of water resources in Dalian city in 2020 is predicted and evaluated to be Grade 2, which means that a strategic target in stable development of the water resources shall be gradually maintained and the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in Dalian city basically kept in the next few years.