邓鹏,徐进超,王欢. 基于CMIP6的气候变化对鄱阳湖流域径流影响研究[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2023(4):71-80. doi: 10.12170/20220224002
引用本文: 邓鹏,徐进超,王欢. 基于CMIP6的气候变化对鄱阳湖流域径流影响研究[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2023(4):71-80. doi: 10.12170/20220224002
(DENG Peng, XU Jinchao, WANG Huan. Study on the impact of climate change by CMIP6 on the rainfall-runoff process of Poyang Lake Basin[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2023(4): 71-80. (in Chinese)). doi: 10.12170/20220224002
Citation: (DENG Peng, XU Jinchao, WANG Huan. Study on the impact of climate change by CMIP6 on the rainfall-runoff process of Poyang Lake Basin[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2023(4): 71-80. (in Chinese)). doi: 10.12170/20220224002

基于CMIP6的气候变化对鄱阳湖流域径流影响研究

Study on the impact of climate change by CMIP6 on the rainfall-runoff process of Poyang Lake Basin

  • 摘要: 基于最新的CMIP6全球气候模式,评估各种模式情景下21世纪中期(2050—2062年)鄱阳湖流域的气候及径流变化情况。基于鄱阳湖流域2001—2019年水文气象及下垫面数据构建SWAT模型,应用CMIP6中4种气候模式,采用Delta降尺度方法构建未来气候情景并模拟水文过程。结果表明,相比基准期(2002—2014年)各种模式情景下流域的降水和气温都呈增加趋势,模拟得到的流域蒸散发量及径流量也都增加,且流域下游地区径流量增加幅度较其他地区更大。SSP585情景下的增温幅度大于SSP126情景,而SSP585情景下的径流量小于SSP126情景。虽然未来气温仍会持续升高,使得流域蒸散发量增加,而径流量变化幅度(−11.93%~49.73%)比蒸散发量的变化幅度(1.06%~11.71%)更大,发生极端水文事件的风险变大。气候变化及相应水文过程模拟结果可为鄱阳湖流域水资源管理和决策提供参考依据。

     

    Abstract: Based on the latest CMIP6 global climate model, the climate and runoff changes in the Poyang Lake Basin in the middle of the 21st century (2050-2062) under various model scenarios were assessed. The SWAT model was constructed based on the hydrometeorological and underlying surface data in the Poyang Lake Basin from 2001 to 2019, and four climate models of CMIP6 were used to construct future climate scenarios using Delta downscaling method and simulate hydrological processes. The results show that compared with the reference period (2002-2014), the precipitation and temperature of the basin under various model scenarios have an increasing trend, and the simulated evapotranspiration and runoff also increase, while the increase of runoff in the downstream areas of the basin is greater than that in other regions. The temperature increase under the SSP585 scenario is greater than that under the SSP126 scenario, and the runoff under the SSP585 scenario is less than that under the SSP126 scenario. Although the climate gets warmer still in the future, which leads to the increasing evapotranspiration in the basin, the variation of runoff (−11.93%~49.73%) is larger than that of evapotranspiration (1.06%~11.71%), which results in more occurrence of extreme hydrologic events. The results of climate change and hydrological processes can guide water resources management and decision making for the Poyang Lake Basin.

     

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