Risk compensation of cascade reservoirs operation based on catastrophe theory and relative risk model

Risk compensation for joint operation of cascade reservoirs is an important measure to balance the risk level of each reservoir and ensure the objective and reasonable distribution of benefits. First of all, the relative risk model is introduced, and the conceptual model of "risk source-risk event-risk receptor-end point" is established to analyze the interaction of various factors in the joint operation of cascade reservoirs. The difference of reservoir construction scale and operation level will lead to the difference. Secondly, with the help of catastrophe theory and multi criteria evaluation method, the relative risk of each layer of the conceptual model is objectively deduced, and the risk level that each reservoir should bear is quantified. Finally, based on the coupled relative risk model and the risk compensation model of catastrophe multi criteria evaluation, the relative risk of the compensation benefit sharing scheme is reduced, and the risk compensation scheme for the joint operation of cascade reservoirs is determined. The proposed risk compensation method for joint operation of cascade reservoirs based on the risk compensation model is applied to the joint operation of Xiluodu, Xiangjiaba and the Three Gorges reservoirs, and makes a comparative analysis based on the compensation benefit sharing scheme. The results show that: (1) The risk compensation method overcomes the subjectivity of coefficient quantification in the relative risk model and effectively reflects the mutual feed and equilibrium relationship between the benefits and risks of joint operation of cascade reservoirs. (2) The risk compensation scheme is consistent with the actual operation mode of the reservoir group. (3) The risk compensation method realizes multi-party cooperation and win-win, which is conducive to improving the enthusiasm of the reservoir to participate in the joint operation. By discussing the joint operation risk compensation scheme of Xiluodu, Xiangjiaba and the Three Gorges reservoirs, the study can provide a reference for the joint operation risk analysis and benefit distribution of cascade reservoirs.