CMIP6模式对黄河水源涵养区降水和气温模拟能力的评估

Assessment of precipitation and temperature in the water conservation region of the Yellow River Basin using CMIP6 models

  • 摘要: 黄河流域水源涵养区是国家重要的生态屏障,评估全球气候模式对黄河流域水源涵养区降水和气温的模拟能力至关重要。基于国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)的20个全球气候模式,采用相对误差、相关系数、确定性系数和泰勒图等评估指标,对黄河流域水源涵养区1985—2014年降水和气温的模拟能力进行综合评估,并对优选出的模式进行空间分析。结果表明:绝大多数气候模式对气温的模拟效果优于降水,气温的相关系数高达0.95以上;而对降水的模拟普遍存在高估现象,确定性系数偏低。在对黄河流域水源涵养区分区研究中发现,大部分模式对3个区域(黄河源区、唐乃亥-兰州以上流域和渭河-伊洛河流域)的模拟精度都有待进一步提高,不同气候模式在不同分区上的模拟能力有差异,总体上,20个模式在黄河源区模拟的降水和气温效果最好,唐乃亥-兰州以上流域次之,渭河-伊洛河流域最差。其中,EC-Earth3-Veg模式在3个区域的模拟能力相对最优,能基本再现降水和气温的年变化特征。降水模拟在黄河源区偏差最大,唐乃亥-兰州以上流域次之,渭河-伊洛河流域最好。气温模拟在唐乃亥-兰州以上流域偏差最大,渭河-伊洛河流域次之,黄河源区最好。研究结果可为黄河流域水资源管理及气候变化的研究提供参考。

     

    Abstract: It is essential to evaluate the performance of global climate models in simulating precipitation and temperature in the water conservation region of the Yellow River Basin, which serves as a vital ecological barrier. This study employs 20 global climate models from the sixth phase of the International Coupled Model Comparison Program (CMIP6) to comprehensively assess the simulation accuracy of precipitation and temperature in the Yellow River Basin water conservation region from 1985 to 2014. Evaluation metrics such as relative error, correlation coefficient, deterministic coefficient, and Taylor diagram are utilized, and spatial analysis is conducted on the selected models. The findings reveal that the majority of climate models perform better in simulating temperature than precipitation, with temperature exhibiting a correlation coefficient above 0.95. On the other hand, precipitation tends to be overestimated, and the deterministic coefficient is low. Within the Yellow River Basin water conservation region, the accuracy of most models in all three subareas—the Yellow River source area, the Tangnaihai-Lanzhou basin, and the Weihe-Yiluo River basin—requires further improvement. Additionally, different climate models exhibit varying simulation abilities across different subareas. Generally, the 20 models exhibit the most accurate simulation of precipitation and temperature in the Yellow River source area, followed by the Tangnaihai-Lanzhou basin, and the least accurate in the Weihe-Yiluo River basin. Notably, the EC-Earth3-Veg model demonstrates relatively superior simulation capabilities in all three regions and can effectively reproduce the annual variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature. Spatial distribution of the simulated values and multi-year average observed values exhibit some variability. Precipitation deviates most significantly in the Yellow River source area, followed by the Tangnaihai-Lanzhou basin, while the Weihe-Yiluo River basin shows the best agreement. Regarding temperature deviation, the Tangnaihai-Lanzhou basin exhibits the highest deviation, followed by the Weihe-Yiluo River basin, while the Yellow River source area shows the best agreement. The outcomes of this study can provide valuable insights for water resources management and climate change research in the Yellow River Basin.

     

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