Abstract:
It is essential to evaluate the performance of global climate models in simulating precipitation and temperature in the water conservation region of the Yellow River Basin, which serves as a vital ecological barrier. This study employs 20 global climate models from the sixth phase of the International Coupled Model Comparison Program (CMIP6) to comprehensively assess the simulation accuracy of precipitation and temperature in the Yellow River Basin water conservation region from 1985 to 2014. Evaluation metrics such as relative error, correlation coefficient, deterministic coefficient, and Taylor diagram are utilized, and spatial analysis is conducted on the selected models. The findings reveal that the majority of climate models perform better in simulating temperature than precipitation, with temperature exhibiting a correlation coefficient above 0.95. On the other hand, precipitation tends to be overestimated, and the deterministic coefficient is low. Within the Yellow River Basin water conservation region, the accuracy of most models in all three subareas—the Yellow River source area, the Tangnaihai-Lanzhou basin, and the Weihe-Yiluo River basin—requires further improvement. Additionally, different climate models exhibit varying simulation abilities across different subareas. Generally, the 20 models exhibit the most accurate simulation of precipitation and temperature in the Yellow River source area, followed by the Tangnaihai-Lanzhou basin, and the least accurate in the Weihe-Yiluo River basin. Notably, the EC-Earth3-Veg model demonstrates relatively superior simulation capabilities in all three regions and can effectively reproduce the annual variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature. Spatial distribution of the simulated values and multi-year average observed values exhibit some variability. Precipitation deviates most significantly in the Yellow River source area, followed by the Tangnaihai-Lanzhou basin, while the Weihe-Yiluo River basin shows the best agreement. Regarding temperature deviation, the Tangnaihai-Lanzhou basin exhibits the highest deviation, followed by the Weihe-Yiluo River basin, while the Yellow River source area shows the best agreement. The outcomes of this study can provide valuable insights for water resources management and climate change research in the Yellow River Basin.