水力不确定性因素对堤防防洪风险效益的影响

Influence of hydraulic uncertainties on embankment flood control risk benefits

摘要: 常规防洪安全分析认为,水利工程的失事风险主要来自超标洪水,工程失事洪灾风险损失计算也仅考虑水文频率因素.对堤防工程而言,其漫溢失事风险不仅受洪水等级水文因素的影响,还受河道沿程糙率、初值水位、局部损失、河道形态、断面面积等水力随机因素的影响.只有综合考虑了水文和水力随机因素综合影响的堤防工程防洪效益才更为合理和准确.因此,在常规防洪效益计算的基础上,综合考虑河道糙率等多种水力不确定性因素的影响,构建河道行洪随机微分数学模型,计算不同频率洪水条件下河道行洪的漫溢失事风险率,并在此基础上构建堤防工程风险效益计算模型.最后,应用沂沭泗流域洪水东调南下续建工程对构建模型进行了验证.

Abstract: For the conventional safety analysis of flood control,the excessive flood is generally believed to be the main factor causing the project accident risk.The projects will suffer overflow crash if the flood goes beyond the flood control strand,and otherwise will be secure.For the accident loss calculation,the hydrological frequency factor is considered only.This knowledge is incomplete.For the embankment project,its crash risk is not only affected by the flood hydrology factor,but also by the hydraulic random...