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Analysis on attribution of runoff evolution in Yiluo River basin in the past 50 years
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摘要: 流域尺度的径流变化反映了气候和人类活动的综合影响，然而目前伊洛河流域径流演变的量化归因尚不明晰。基于Budyko假设构建解析径流变化归因的模型，量化评估径流对各环境因素变化的敏感性系数，定量揭示各因素对径流变化的贡献。结果表明，1970—2018年间，伊洛河流域径流显著下降（α=0.05），且在1991年发生突变，突变后径流减少了46.43 mm（34.32%）。径流变化对降水、潜在蒸散发和下垫面参数的敏感性系数分别为0.42、−0.18和−78.36，即降水每增加1 mm将导致径流增加0.42 mm，潜在蒸散发量每增加1 mm将导致径流减少0.18 mm，下垫面参数每增加1个单位将导致径流减少78.36 mm。气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为42.60%和56.36%，人类活动引起的下垫面变化是径流变化的主要原因，其中植被变化是下垫面变化的主导因素。研究结果可为流域径流演变归因和水资源管理规划提供理论支撑。Abstract: Watershed-scale runoff changes reflect the combined effects of climate and human activities. However, the attribution of runoff evolution in the Yiluo River basin is currently unclear. Based on the Budyko hypothesis, this study team builds a model to analyze the attribution of runoff changes, quantitatively evaluates the sensitivity coefficient of runoff to changes in various environmental factors, and quantitatively reveals the contribution of various factors to runoff changes. The results show that the runoff of the Yiluo River Basin decreased significantly (α=0.05) from 1970 to 2018, a mutation point occurred in 1991 and the runoff decreased by 46.43 mm (34.32%) during the change period. The sensitivity coefficients of runoff changes to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and underlying surface parameters are 0.42, −0.18 and −78.36, respectively, that is, every 1 mm increase in precipitation will lead to an increase of 0.42 mm in runoff, and an increase of 1 mm in potential evapotranspiration will lead to a decrease of 0.18 mm in runoff. Each increase of 1 unit of the underlying surface parameter will result in a decrease of 78.36 mm in runoff. The contribution rates of the climate change and human activities to runoff change are 42.60% and 56.36%, respectively, and underlying surface changes caused by human activities are the main reason of runoff changes, among which vegetation change is the dominant factor in underlying surface changes. The research results can provide theoretical support for the attribution of runoff evolution and water resources management planning in the basin.
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Key words:
- runoff evolution /
- attribution analysis /
- Budyko hypothesis /
- Yiluo River basin
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图 2 伊洛河流域水文气象要素变化线性趋势
Figure 2. The linear trend of changes in hydrological and and meteorological elements in the Yiluo River basin
图 3 伊洛河流域突变检验及变化前后对比
Figure 3. Runoff mutation test in Yiluo River basin and comparison during the two periods
图 4 伊洛河流域双累积曲线及降水-径流关系
Figure 4. The double accumulation curve and precipitation-runoff relationship of the Yiluo River basin
图 5 伊洛河流域土地利用和植被覆盖度变化趋势
Figure 5. Land use and vegetation change trends in the Yiluo River basin
表 1 伊洛河流域水文要素阶段特征值及变化量
Table 1. Characteristic values and changes of hydrological elements in the Yiluo River Basin
时段 Q/mm P/mm E0/mm n 1970—1990 135.28 705.81 986.97 1.96 1991—2018 88.85 668.04 1 009.41 2.29 变化量/Δ −46.43 −37.77 22.44 0.33 
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表 2 径流演变各影响因素贡献率
Table 2. Contribution rate of each influencing factor to runoff evolution
项目 ΔQ实测 ΔQ气候 ΔQ下垫面 误差 ΔQP ΔQE0 小计 影响量/mm −46.43 −15.80 −3.98 −19.78 −26.17 −0.48 贡献率/% 100 34.03 8.57 42.60 56.36 1.04
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表 3 伊洛河流域土地利用转移矩阵
Table 3. Land use transfer matrix of Yiluo River basin
单位：% 土地利用类型 耕地 林地 草地 水域 居住用地 裸地 耕地 33.741 2.245 3.075 0.734 4.826 0.006 林地 2.154 28.758 1.601 0.132 0.199 0 草地 3.574 1.679 11.445 0.054 0.241 0 水域 0.722 0.138 0.138 0.493 0.138 0 居住用地 1.793 0.048 0.054 0.036 1.956 0 裸地 0.012 0 0 0 0 0.006
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