基于GWO-LSTM的丹江口水库入库径流预测

Prediction of inflow to the Danjiangkou reservoir based on GWO-LSTM

  • 摘要: 入库径流预测对丹江口水库调度及水资源利用具有重要的指示意义。基于灰狼优化算法(GWO)构建不同的预测模型,开展丹江口水库月入库径流预测研究,并探讨网络结构超参数的选取及验证GWO全局遍历性、收敛快的特点。结果表明:灰狼优化的长短期记忆模型(GWO-LSTM)的预测精度和泛化性能优于灰狼优化的人工神经网络模型(GWO-BP)和逐步回归模型,其验证期的纳什效率系数平均达到0.969,整体趋势预测较好,峰值捕捉略有不足,可适用于丹江口水库月入库径流预测;模型超参数依据经验取值时,其预测结果不如GWO优化,验证期的纳什效率系数不足0.5,未达到可接受范围,而且带有一定的偶然性,建议选用具有全局优化特性的优化算法进行超参数选取;验证了GWO算法全局遍历性和收敛快的特点,平均在3次迭代后可达到收敛状态。

     

    Abstract: The prediction of runoff into the reservoir has important indications for the operation of Danjiangkou Reservoir and the utilization of water resources. Based on the gray wolf optimization algorithm (GWO), we constructed different prediction models, carried out the study of reservoir runoff prediction in Danjiangkou, made the selection of network structure hyperparameters, and verified the characteristics of global traversability and fast convergence of GWO. The results show that the prediction accuracy and generalization performance of the GWO-LSTM model are better than those of the GWO-BP model and the stepwise regression model. The Nash efficiency coefficient of its verification period reaches 0.969 on average. The overall trend forecast is good, and the peak capture is slightly insufficient, which is suitable for the prediction of monthly inflow to the Danjiangkou reservoir. The prediction results of model hyperparameters based on empirical values are not as good as GWO. Based on empirical values, the NSE of the verification period is less than 0.5, which does not reach the acceptable range, and there is a certain contingency. It is recommended to select an optimization algorithm with global optimization characteristics for hyperparameter selection. The global traversability and fast convergence characteristics of the GWO algorithm are verified, and the convergence state can be reached after 3 iterations on average.

     

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