永定河三家店以上流域径流减少归因分析

Attribution of runoff attenuation in the Yongding River basin upstream of the Sanjiadian

  • 摘要: 20世纪70年代以来,永定河流域径流特征发生了巨大变化,下游常年处于断流状态。根据1956—1991年及2006—2018年永定河三家店以上流域各站的气象与水文数据,利用M-K检验和小波分析方法分析了永定河流域的气象要素及径流变化趋势,利用双累积曲线和基于Budyko假设的弹性系数法进行了径流减少归因分析。结果表明:①1956—2018年间永定河流域的降雨无明显增加或减少趋势,气温有显著上升趋势,蒸发能力略有下降,径流减少非常明显,达到99.9%置信水平。②永定河流域大部分站点的降雨和径流变化存在大概11或23 a的波动周期。③永定河10个水文站的降雨-径流双累积曲线均发生了2~4次较为明显的偏移,在20世纪的60年代中期、70年代初期、80年中期和90年代初期都发生了偏向径流的偏移,这表明在降雨量水平未发生明显变化的情况下,径流减少了。④永定河流域是强人类活动区域,弹性系数绝对值依次为:降水>下垫面参数>蒸发能力,人类活动对径流减少的平均贡献率约为95%。

     

    Abstract: The runoff characteristics in the Yongding River basin have changed enormously since the 1970s with part of the lower reaches drying up frequently all the year around. Based on the meteorological and hydrological data from two periods (1956-1991 and 2006-2018), the main influencing factors of runoff attenuation were analyzed using the M-K test and wavelet analysis. The attribution of runoff attenuation was performed using Double Mass Curve and Elastic Coefficient Method based on the Budyko hypothesis. The results illustrate: (1) during the years 1956-2018, rainfall in the Yongding River basin did not vary significantly, the temperature increased significantly, the evaporation capacity decreased slightly, and the runoff decreased significantly, reaching 99.9% confidence level; (2) the rainfall and runoff for most of stations have a fluctuation period between 11 and 23 years; (3) the double mass curves for 10 hydrological stations have shifted 4 times (mid-1960s, early 1970s, mid-1980s, and the early 1990s) which are all biased towards runoff. This indicates that the runoff has declined in spite of no obvious change in the rainfall level; (4) the Yongding River basin is a region affected by a lot of human activities. It should be noted that the absolute value of elasticity coefficient of precipitation is larger than the underlying surface parameters which in turn are larger than the evaporation capacity. Finally, the average contribution rate of human activities to runoff attenuation is about 95%.

     

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