Abstract:
The life risk assessment method for flood overtopping of concrete dam is studied and the traditional assessment method is improved in this paper. Based on the Copula function and the three-point variable-ratio amplification method, a bivariate analysis method of peak-volume is proposed to generate the random sequence of annual maximum flood hydrograph, and then the life risk is assessed. The life risk assessment criteria for dam break are studied and a proper one is proposed to suit the current situation of dams in China. Taking a hydropower station in Guizhou province as an example, the life loss due to flood overtopping is evaluated for the retaining dam after reinforcement, and the life loss risk is assessed according to the risk criterion. Results show that the life risk due to flood overflow in the downstream area of the hydropower station is small and within the socially acceptable range. In conclusion, considering the relationship among flood characteristics, the flood occurrence probability calculated by the proposed risk assessment method is more consistent with the reality.