基于Copula函数的大通站水沙特征分析

Analysis of runoff and sediment characteristics of Datong Station based on Copula function

  • 摘要: 长江口受人类活动影响较为强烈,其水沙序列一致性遭到破坏。以大通站1965—2019年逐月径流量和来沙量资料为基础,采用滑动窗口算法结合Copula理论的方法,研究长江口来水来沙变化特征及丰枯一致性问题,并分析水沙联合分布模型边缘函数选取不确定性问题。结果表明:(1)受人类活动的影响,大通站水沙组合在1965—2019年间均呈减少趋势,并且在1979和2000年发生突变,水沙序列1965—1979年和1980—2000年阶段最优函数模型均为Clayton模型,2001—2019年则为Frank模型;(2)大通水文站3个阶段水沙序列同步频率分别是84.52%、84.40%和83.20%,远大于丰枯异步频率,揭示了长江上游来水来沙条件具有较强的一致性;(3)PE3-PE3边缘分布组合的95%置信区间小于PE3-GPD组合,说明采用PE3-PE3组合可以减少函数选取的不确定性。通过探讨大通站来水来沙联合变化特征,可为长江口水域水资源管理、河道整治等工作提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The Yangtze River estuary has been strongly influenced by human activities, and the consistency of its runoff-sediment sequence has been damaged. Based on the monthly runoff and sediment data from 1965 to 2019 at Datong Station, a sliding window algorithm based on Copula is applied to investigate the variation characteristics of runoff and sediment in the Yangtze estuary and the consistency of its abundance-depletion, and the uncertainty of the marginal distribution selection for the joint runoff-sediment distribution model is also analyzed. The results show that: (1) The runoff-sediment combination at Datong Station shows a decreasing trend from 1965 to 2019 due to human activities, and changes abruptly in 1979 and 2000. The optimal function models for the runoff-sediment series in 1965—1979 and 1980—2000 are Clayton, while 2001—2019 is best modeled by Frank; (2) the synchronous frequencies of the runoff-sediment series in the three periods are 84.52%, 84.40% and 83.20% respectively, which are much greater than the asynchronous frequencies of abundance-depletion, revealing the strong consistency of the incoming runoff-sediment in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River; (3) the 95% confidence interval of the PE3-PE3 marginal distribution combination is smaller than that of the PE3-GPD combination, indicating that the PE3-PE3 combination would reduce the uncertainty of function selection. By exploring the joint variation characteristics of incoming runoff and sediment at Datong station, this study provides a reference for water resources management and river regulation in the Yangtze estuary.

     

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