Abstract:
It is of great significance to study the evolution of regional extreme precipitation for scientific response to regional water resources utilization and disaster prevention and reduction under the changing environment. In this work, six extreme precipitation indices defined by the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices) are selected to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of extreme precipitation in the Pearl River Delta region by using the linear trend, Kriging interpolation and cross wavelet methods. Besides, the correlation between atmospheric circulation anomalies and extreme precipitation is identified. The results show that: (1) Except for CWD, all the indices have increased by various magnitudes during the period of 1961—2017. It indicates that extreme precipitation is increasing in the Pearl River Delta, but the change is not significant. (2) The stations with increasing trends are mainly located in the central and northern parts of the region, and the stations with a significant change are in the northern part of the Pearl River Estuary and the northern part of the region. (3) The spatial distribution of each index is similar but slightly different for various climate states. The spatial patterns of trends for the four states are significantly different, with the change magnitudes increased from State 1 to State 4. (4) The CDD index is significantly affected by IOD, while the ENSO significantly influences the other indices.