河南省典型枯水年水资源脆弱性评价及贡献因子识别

Assessment of water resources vulnerability and identification of its contribution factors in typical dry year in Henan Province

  • 摘要: 水资源脆弱性评价是水安全的重要度量方式,水资源安全是区域可持续发展的基础。以河南省18个市区为研究单元,从自然条件、社会经济、供用耗水等3个子系统选取指标建立评价体系,运用熵权法、线性加权法求解其典型枯水年水资源脆弱性,从城市、区域、全省角度分析水资源子系统指数、脆弱性指数,并采用贡献度模型识别了水资源脆弱性主要贡献因子,以期为河南省水资源管理提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)整体上看,3个子系统水资源脆弱性指数大小排序为自然条件>供用耗水>社会经济;城市和区域的水资源子系统指数、脆弱性指数存在一定的差异,且有自西南向东北逐渐增大的趋势;全省水资源为Ⅲ级中等脆弱性。(2)18个市区及全省水资源脆弱性3个子系统贡献度排序为自然条件>供用耗水>社会经济;水资源脆弱性的主要贡献因子集中在自然条件子系统的4个指标。此外,社会经济子系统中的亩均化肥折纯量和供用耗水子系统中的人均综合用水量、亩均灌溉用水量也是主要贡献因子。最后,提出“多渠道供水,提高供水侧能力”“合理扩张城镇、优化人口经济结构,提高城市水平”“提高用水效率,节约用水”的差异化“降脆”策略,以实现水资源可持续发展。

     

    Abstract: Water resources vulnerability is an important measurement of water security and the basis of regional sustainable development. Taking Henan Province and its 18 cities as evaluation unit, the index system of water resources vulnerability evaluation was established by considering three subsystems of natural condition, social economy as well as water supply and consumption. Entropy Weight Method and Linear Weighting Method were used to calculate water resources vulnerability of typical dry year. The water resources subsystem index and vulnerability index were investigated from city, region to the entire province. The Contribution Model was applied to identify the principal contribution factors of water resources vulnerability in order to provide a scientific basis for water resources management in Henan Province. The results show that the subsystem indexes range from water resources natural condition index, water resources supply and consumption index, to water resources socio-economic index. And there exists a certain difference in water resources subsystem index and vulnerability index at different levels of urban cities, regions, and province with the both indexes increasing from southwest to northeast. The water resources vulnerability for the entire Henan Province is classified as Grade Ⅲ, which is medium vulnerability. The contribution of the three sub-systems to water resources, vulnerability for the main cities and the whole province follows a same rank order from natural condition, water supply and consumption condition, to social economic condition. The four indicators of the natural condition sub-system are principal contribution factors to water vulnerability. The per-mu chemical fertilizer conversion scalar in the socio-economic subsystem and the per-capita comprehensive water consumption and per-mu irrigation water consumption in the water-supply-consumption subsystem are also major contribution factors to water resources vulnerability. The three subsystems should take “multi-channel water supply, improving the capacity of water supply”,“rationally expanding cities and towns, optimizing population and economic structure, improving urban living and production level”,“improving water utilization efficiency, saving water”as the breakthrough points to achieve accurate “vulnerability reduction”, so as to guide the sustainable development of water resources.

     

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