水库塌岸短期预测中时空界限决策研究

Research on time-space boundary decision-making in short-term prediction of reservoir bank collapse

  • 摘要: 水库塌岸是具有一定时间、空间界限属性的地质灾害现象。时间界限指时间跨度,分为长期、短期塌岸;空间界限指不同水库区段,因地质条件差异导致的塌岸模式、预测参数的差异。目前常用的水库塌岸短期预测时长跨度为2~10年,但在实际工程应用中,缺乏足够的决策依据。从水库蓄水过程的角度,证明了塌岸短期预测时长可根据水库蓄水过程来界定,以三峡、小浪底等大型水库工程为例,验证该界定方法科学合理。并给出了塌岸预测时空界限的决策流程,将时空界限决策理论应用于甘肃马莲河水库工程短期塌岸预测中,从工程地质角度对短期塌岸预测成果的应用给出建议。

     

    Abstract: Reservoir bank collapse is a geological environmental disaster phenomenon with time-space boundary attributes. Time boundary refers to the time span, including long-term and short-term bank collapse. Space boundary refers to different reservoir sections. Differences in bank collapse patterns and prediction parameters are caused by differences in geological environmental conditions. At present, the short-term prediction time span of reservoir bank collapse commonly used is 2 to 10 years, but for engineering applications, there is a lack of sufficient decision-making basis, which brings difficulties to practical applications. Based on the characteristics of the reservoir water storage process, this paper proves that the selection of the short-term prediction time for bank collapse can be defined according to the time period of the reservoir water storage process. From the perspective of large-scale reservoir projects such as the Three Gorges and Xiaolangdi, the definition method is scientific and reasonable. And a decision-making flow chart for the time-space boundary of bank collapse prediction is designed. The decision-making theory of time-space boundary is applied to the short-term bank collapse prediction of Malianhe Reservoir in Gansu, and the decision-making process of its time-space boundary is expounded in detail. And from the perspective of engineering geology, suggestions are provided for the application of short-term bank collapse prediction results.

     

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