基于突变理论和相对风险的水库群联合调度风险补偿

Risk compensation of cascade reservoirs operation based on catastrophe theory and relative risk model

  • 摘要: 梯级水库群联合调度风险补偿是均衡各水库风险水平、保障效益客观合理分配的重要措施。首先,引入相对风险模型,建立“风险源-风险事件-风险受体-评价终点”概念模型,分析梯级水库群联合调度中各因子的相互作用,进而考虑由水库建设规模和运行方式差异导致的不同风险承担水平差距;其次,借助突变理论多准则评价方法,客观推求概念模型各层的相对风险,量化各水库应承担的风险水平;最后,基于耦合相对风险模型和突变多准则评价的风险补偿模型,对补偿效益分摊方案进行相对风险折减,确定梯级水库群联合调度风险补偿方案。将所提风险补偿方法运用于溪洛渡、向家坝、三峡水库的联合调度,并以补偿效益分摊方案为基准进行对比分析。结果表明:(1)风险补偿方法克服了相对风险模型中系数量化的主观性,有效反映了梯级水库群联合调度效益与风险的互馈与均衡关系;(2)风险补偿方案与水库群实际运行方式相符;(3)风险补偿方法实现了多方合作共赢,有利于提高水库参与联合调度的积极性。通过探讨溪洛渡、向家坝和三峡水库联合调度风险补偿方案,可为梯级水库群联合调度风险分析、效益分配等提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Risk compensation for joint operation of cascade reservoirs is an important measure to balance the risk level of each reservoir and ensure the objective and reasonable distribution of benefits. First of all, the relative risk model is introduced, and the conceptual model of "risk source-risk event-risk receptor-end point" is established to analyze the interaction of various factors in the joint operation of cascade reservoirs. The difference of reservoir construction scale and operation level will lead to the difference. Secondly, with the help of catastrophe theory and multi criteria evaluation method, the relative risk of each layer of the conceptual model is objectively deduced, and the risk level that each reservoir should bear is quantified. Finally, based on the coupled relative risk model and the risk compensation model of catastrophe multi criteria evaluation, the relative risk of the compensation benefit sharing scheme is reduced, and the risk compensation scheme for the joint operation of cascade reservoirs is determined. The proposed risk compensation method for joint operation of cascade reservoirs based on the risk compensation model is applied to the joint operation of Xiluodu, Xiangjiaba and the Three Gorges reservoirs, and makes a comparative analysis based on the compensation benefit sharing scheme. The results show that: (1) The risk compensation method overcomes the subjectivity of coefficient quantification in the relative risk model and effectively reflects the mutual feed and equilibrium relationship between the benefits and risks of joint operation of cascade reservoirs. (2) The risk compensation scheme is consistent with the actual operation mode of the reservoir group. (3) The risk compensation method realizes multi-party cooperation and win-win, which is conducive to improving the enthusiasm of the reservoir to participate in the joint operation. By discussing the joint operation risk compensation scheme of Xiluodu, Xiangjiaba and the Three Gorges reservoirs, the study can provide a reference for the joint operation risk analysis and benefit distribution of cascade reservoirs.

     

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