青藏高原雪深变化特征及其与气象要素的偏相关分析

Analysis of the characteristics of snow depth variation on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and its partial correlation with meteorological factors

  • 摘要: 为探析第三极地区积雪时空变化规律,基于中国雪深长时间序列数据集(1979—2021)及中国区域地面气象要素驱动数据集(1979—2018),分析了青藏高原地区近40年雪深的时空变化特征及其与近地面气温、降水的偏相关性。时空变化分析结果显示,青藏高原地区雪深在年尺度上呈现出以内部三大区域的雪深减少为主的变化趋势,而这种趋势在月尺度及秋冬两季更为显著;高原东部是雪深显著增加的主要区域。偏相关分析发现,雪深在月、季和年尺度上均与气温有着较大的负相关性,最大负偏相关系数约为−0.8;雪深与降水在年、月尺度上有着以正相关为主且相似的空间分布,在春、夏两季二者呈“东正西负”的相关性,而大范围的正相关性(偏相关系数在0.4以上)集中在秋季。在日尺度上,气温与延迟10 d后的雪深呈现出最大负相关性(偏相关系数为−0.733);而降水则与延迟3 d后的雪深呈现出最高的正相关性(偏相关系数为0.064)。青藏高原雪深与气象要素的相关性表现出明显的时空异质性,地形、融积时间乃至高原周围的季风与西风都可能是导致这种时空差异性的原因。

     

    Abstract: To investigate the patterns of snow change in the Third Pole region, this study examines the temporal and spatial characteristics of snow depth on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over the past 40 years. Additionally, it conducts a partial correlation analysis to assess the relationship between snow depth and near-surface temperature, as well as average precipitation. The analysis utilizes long-term datasets of daily snow depth in China (1979—2021) and the China meteorological forcing dataset (1979—2018). The results of the spatiotemporal variation analysis reveal a decreasing trend in snow depth across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, particularly in its three interior regions. This trend is more pronounced on a monthly scale, particularly during autumn and winter. However, the eastern part of the plateau experiences a significant increase in snow depth. The partial correlation analysis demonstrates a strong negative correlation between snow depth and temperature across all scales, with a maximum negative partial correlation coefficient of approximately −0.8. On the other hand, snow depth and precipitation exhibit similar spatial distribution but have distinct correlation patterns on an annual and monthly basis. Overall, the correlation between snow depth and precipitation follows a “positive in east and negative in west” distribution pattern during spring and summer, while autumn exhibits a more widespread positive correlation, with most areas showing a positive correlation above 0.4. On a daily scale, temperature exhibits the strongest negative partial correlation (−0.733) with snow depth, with a 10-day delay, while precipitation demonstrates the highest positive correlation (0.064) with snow depth, with a 3-day delay. The variation characteristics of snow depth and its correlation with meteorological factors on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau exhibit significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. This heterogeneity can be attributed to factors such as topography, ablation and accumulation time, and the influence of monsoons and westerlies around the plateau.

     

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