Abstract: Real-time deformation monitoring data reflects the structural state of sluices and the characteristics of the loads they endure. If the failure probability of sluices can be determined based on deformation monitoring data, more objective and reliable results can be obtained. By incorporating in-situ monitoring data into the analysis of sluice failure probability, a quantitative model of real-time risk rate for sluice deformation based on Copula function is proposed. Considering the differences and correlations in monitoring effects at various parts of the sluice, the analysis elevates the deformation risk rate from single-point monitoring to multi-point monitoring, thereby achieving real-time quantitative analysis of the overall deformation risk rate of the sluice. Case studies demonstrate that the model dynamically transforms the measured deformation effects into risk rates and conducts comprehensive analysis of the real-time risk rates of sluice deformation. The results obtained conform to the fundamental laws and objective facts of the overall variation in sluice deformation risk rates, effectively interpreting engineering monitoring information and intuitively reflecting the operational characteristics of the engineering structure. This can provide theoretical basis and technical support for the operation management and safety monitoring of sluice engineering.