鄱阳湖高水位水文成因分析——以2020年为例

Analysis on the hydrological causes of high water levels in Poyang Lake: a case study of 2020

  • 摘要: 湖泊承担着天然拦蓄洪水的作用,面对特大洪水,因湖泊库容限制有产生堤防漫溢及湖区下游险情的风险。因此需要针对洪水进行成因分析,在成洪条件出现时及时采取措施以减小洪水危害。2020年,鄱阳湖流域发生超历史大洪水,长江干流、鄱阳湖水位长期居高不下,以鄱阳湖流域为研究对象,基于2020年流域内雨量站、水文站等地面观测数据,利用统计分析法对本次高水位的成因进行系统分析。结果表明:汛期流域内降水及降水带来的径流使得鄱阳湖来水增加,是鄱阳湖形成高水位的主要原因;长江干流洪水顶托在洪水初期推动了鄱阳湖高水位的出现,这对鄱阳湖高水位的维持起着重要作用。对鄱阳湖2020年洪水成因的分析,可为流域性洪水成因分析提供理论依据和决策指导。

     

    Abstract: Lakes play a natural role in trapping floodwaters; however, in the face of massive floods, the limited storage capacity of lakes can risk causing dyke overflow and dangerous situations in downstream areas. Therefore, it's essential to conduct causative analyses on floods and take timely measures to mitigate flood damages when conditions conducive to flooding arise. In 2020, the Poyang Lake basin experienced an unprecedented flood, with the water levels of the Yangtze River mainstream and Poyang Lake remaining high for an extended period. Taking the Poyang Lake basin as the study subject and based on the ground observation data from rainfall stations and hydrological stations within the basin in 2020, this study systematically analyzed the causes of the high water levels using statistical analysis methods. The results show that the increased inflow into Poyang Lake, due to precipitation in the basin and the runoff brought by the rainfall, is the primary reason for the formation of high water levels in Poyang Lake. In the early stages of the flood, the surge from the Yangtze River mainstream played a significant role in initiating and subsequently maintaining high water levels in Poyang Lake. The analysis of the causes behind the 2020 flood in Poyang Lake provides a theoretical basis and guidance for policy-making on the analysis of flood causes in river basins.

     

/

返回文章
返回