CMIP6模式下渭河流域气温和降水时空分布特征

Characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation in the Weihe River Basin under CMIP6 models

  • 摘要: 渭河流域是中国重要的粮食生产基地之一,研究流域未来气候状况将为实现“黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展”的总体目标提供坚实保障。利用渭河流域的27个气象站资料(1979—2014年),并结合NCEP的再分析数据,构建了SDSM的降尺度模型,应用于NorESM2-MM、CanESM5、MPI-ESM1-2-HR等CMIP6多模式集合的3种不同情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5),预测该流域未来气温和降水变化。模拟结果表明,SDSM模型在对渭河流域气温的模拟上表现出色,但对降水的模拟效果稍显不足;渭河流域未来气温将持续升高,空间分布呈由南向北递减的趋势;渭河流域未来降水量增多,空间分布呈东南高西北低的趋势;渭河流域气温升高与降水量增大的幅度均为SSP5-8.5 > SSP2-4.5 > SSP1-2.6。渭河流域未来气温呈现“冷-暖”交替变化,而未来降水量则呈现“丰-枯”交替变化。

     

    Abstract: The Weihe River Basin is one of China's significant grain-producing areas, and researching future climatic conditions of the basin will provide strong support for achieving the overall objective of “ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.” Utilizing data from 27 meteorological stations within the Weihe River Basin (1979—2014) in conjunction with NCEP reanalysis data, a downscaled model using SDSM was constructed. This model was applied to three different scenarios of a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) to predict future temperature and precipitation changes in the basin. Simulation results indicate that the SDSM model performs excellently in the simulation of temperatures within the Weihe River Basin but slightly less so in precipitation simulation; future temperatures in the Weihe River Basin are expected to continue to rise, with a spatial distribution trend decreasing from south to north; future precipitation in the Weihe River Basin is expected to increase, with a spatial distribution showing higher levels in the southeast and lower in the northwest; the magnitude of trends in both temperature increase and precipitation increase follow the order SSP5-8.5 > SSP2-4.5 > SSP1-2.6. Future temperatures in the Weihe River Basin are expected to exhibit alternations between “cold” and “warm” phases, whereas future precipitation levels will alternate between “abundant” and “scarce” phases.

     

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