近百年黄河流域两个连续枯水段的天气成因分析

Comparative analysis of the weather causes of two consecutive low-flow periods in the Yellow River Basin over the past hundred years

  • 摘要: 在全球气候变暖背景下,近百年黄河流域出现1922—1932年和1990—2002年两个连续枯水段,并给流域水资源安全造成了严重威胁。对这两个时段的降水特性进行了比较,并从大气环流和海温异常特征方面探讨了两个时段枯水的天气成因。结果表明:在降水偏少程度上,1990—2002年强于1922—1932年,两个时段的大气环流异常均表现为中纬度地区500 hPa贝加尔湖高压偏强,对应低层西南风减弱,导致向黄河流域水汽输送不足,但在高、低纬地区环流存在较大差异。海温异常均表现为北太平洋海温偏低、赤道中东太平洋海温偏高的分布。研究还定义了贝加尔湖高压指数和太平洋海温指数,该指数与黄河流域年径流显著相关,可以作为黄河流域丰枯预测的指标。研究结果可为黄河流域水资源管理及决策服务提供技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: Under the background of global warming, the Yellow River Basin has experienced two consecutive low water periods over the past hundred years (1922–1932 and 1990–2002), which have seriously threatened the region’s water resources security. This study compares precipitation characteristics between these two periods and explores the weather causes from the perspectives of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies. The results show that the 1990–2002 period exhibited a more intense precipitation deficit than 1922–1932, corresponding to widespread drought in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin. Both periods displayed similar mid-latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies, including an enhanced 500 hPa Lake Baikal High accompanied by weakened low-level southwesterly winds, leading to insufficient water vapor transport into the basin. However, significant differences in circulation patterns were observed at high and low latitudes. For example, the polar vortex was weak and the subtropical high extended eastward during 1922–1932, whereas during 1990–2002, the polar vortex was enhanced and the subtropical high shifted westward. Sea surface temperature anomalies in both periods were characterized by colder conditions in the North Pacific and warmer conditions in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. This paper also defines the Lake Baikal high-pressure index and the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature index (calculated as the sea surface temperature of the North Pacific minus that of the equatorial central-eastern Pacific), both of which show significant correlations with the annual runoff of the Yellow River Basin and can serve as indicators for predicting hydrological abundance or decline. The findings offer technical support for water resources management and decision-making in the Yellow River Basin.

     

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