1961—2022年中国极端连续降水过程的时空格局特征

Spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme continuous precipitation processes in China during 1961-2022

  • 摘要: 气候变化背景下中国极端降水增多趋强,持续时间较长的极端连续降水过程对区域性和流域性的影响大,具有更大致灾性,研究极端连续降水过程的格局和变化趋势对洪涝灾害预警和风险管理具有重要意义。基于1961—2022年中国逐日观测降水资料,采用百分位法和广义极值分布研究了极端连续降水过程发生频次和阈值的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)中国第95百分位极端连续降水量阈值呈西北地区小、东南地区大的特征,江南和西南地区东部是极端连续降水过程的高发区。1991—2020年中国极端连续降水过程频次相较于1961—1990年期,在江南、江淮南部、华南等地增加,而在华北、东北西部、西北东部、西南地区等地减少。1991—2020年连续降水量多年一遇阈值相较于1961—1990年整体上也呈现北减南增的特征。(2)极端连续降水过程持续时间大多数在14 d以下,3~4 d发生频率最高。(3)极端连续降水过程主要发生在5—9月,各月极端连续降水过程频数变化特征不同。7月,极端连续降水过程频数在江南东部、江淮南部为高值区,且1990年以后频数进一步增加,这表明以上地区极端连续降水过程在近30年发生更为频繁。研究结果可为水资源管理、城市排水防洪设施设计等提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Under the background of climate change, extreme precipitation in China is increasing in both frequency and intensity. Long-term extreme continuous precipitation process has greater impacts on regional and watershed characteristics and exhibit a more widespread disaster potential. Studying the distribution and trends of extreme continuous precipitation processes is of great significance for flood disaster warning and risk management. Based on daily observed precipitation data from 2,135 meteorological stations in China during 1961–2022, the spatiotemporal characteristics of the frequency and threshold of extreme continuous precipitation processes were examined using the percentile threshold method and the Generalized Extreme Value distribution method (GEV). The least squares method was used to fit the long-term trend of the time series, and the T-test method was applied to test the trend’s significance. A continuous precipitation process is defined here as one in which accumulated precipitation exceeds 0.1 mm and lasts for at least two days. The threshold of extreme continuous precipitation is calculated using the non-parametric percentile method, with the 95th percentile value as the threshold. The research period is divided into two parts: the first from 1961 to 1990, and the second from 1991 to 2020. The characteristics of these two periods are compared to illustrate the influence of climate change on extreme continuous precipitation. The results show that: (1) The threshold for extreme continuous precipitation is relatively low in the northwest region and high in the southeast, with the eastern parts of the Jiangnan region (south of the Yangtze River) and Southwest region being high-risk areas. The annual frequency of extreme continuous precipitation in China showed an increasing trend during 1961–2022, peaking in 2021. The frequency of extreme continuous precipitation increased in the Jiangnan region, southern Jianghuai region (the southern area between the Yangtze and Huai Rivers), and southern China, while decreasing in North China, western Northeast China, eastern Northwest China, southwestern China, and other regions during 1991−2020. (2) The threshold for continuous precipitation events with a 50-year or 100-year return period from 1991 to 2020 also shows a general pattern of decreasing in the north and increasing in the south compared with 1961–1990, with significant increases in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, western South China, and Hainan. For continuous precipitation exceeding 200 mm, the recurrence interval of continuous precipitation is once every 10 years in most areas south of the Yangtze River, once every 30 years in most areas south of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, once every 50 years in southern North China and southeastern Northwest China, and once every 100 years in central and northern Northeast China. (3) The duration of extreme continuous precipitation processes in China is mostly below 14 days, with the highest frequency occurring within 3–4 days. The duration of extreme continuous precipitation processes has shortened since 1990. (4) Extreme continuous precipitation processes in China mainly occur from May to September, with monthly frequencies showing different variation patterns. The annual distribution of the start and end times of extreme continuous precipitation processes is unimodal, with higher frequencies in June and August, and a peak in July. Compared with 1961–1990, the frequency of extreme continuous precipitation during 1991–2020 decreased significantly in April, May, August, and September, while increasing significantly in June and July. Both the frequency and magnitude of extreme continuous precipitation are greatest in July among the 12 months. In July, the frequency of extreme continuous precipitation processes was high in the eastern part of Jiangnan and the southern part of Jianghuai, and further increased after 1990, indicating that extreme continuous precipitation processes have occurred more frequently in these areas over the past 30 years. The research results provide scientific support for water resource management, and the design of urban drainage and flood control facilities.

     

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