内河船闸运行应急管理评估云模型及应用

Evaluation of inland ship lock operational emergency management capability based on an improved combination-weighting cloud model

  • 摘要: 内河船闸作为水路运输网络的关键节点,其运行应急管理能力的评估至关重要,但相关研究较少且缺乏有效评估方法。为此,提出了一种基于改进组合赋权与云模型的内河船闸运行应急管理能力评估方法。首先,依据PPRR理论,从应急预防、应急准备、应急响应和应急恢复等4个维度构建包含4个一级指标和30个二级指标的内河船闸应急管理能力评价指标体系,覆盖了从风险预防到事故恢复的全过程;其次,采用改进的G1法和改进的CRITIC法分别确定主客观权重,再通过博弈论确定各指标最优组合权重,确保权重分配的合理性和科学性;最后,基于云模型实现对应急管理能力的量化评价,将定性概念与定量数据有效转换,解决了评估中的模糊性和随机性问题,直观展示评估结果。选取江苏省某船闸进行实证分析,评估其2020—2023年的运行应急管理能力,结果显示整体表现良好并呈上升趋势,与实际情况相符,验证了该模型的有效性和科学性。本研究为内河船闸运行应急管理能力的评估提供了系统化、可操作的方法论,为管理部门优化应急管理策略、提升管理效率提供了理论基础和实践指导。

     

    Abstract: As critical infrastructure nodes in waterway transportation networks, inland ship locks play a pivotal role in ensuring the efficiency and safety of shipping logistics systems. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to assess and enhance the emergency management capability of inland river lock operations. However, despite its importance, there are few studies focusing on the evaluation of the emergency management capability of inland ship locks. To address this gap, this study develops an evaluation framework integrating improved combination weighting and a cloud model, providing a systematic and quantitative approach for assessing the emergency management capability of inland ship lock operations. First, a comprehensive evaluation index system was established, grounded in the PPRR theory (emergency prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery) and refined through expert opinions. This index system comprises four first-level indicators and 30 second-level indicators, covering the complete emergency management lifecycle from risk prevention to post-incident recovery. Second, an improved G1 method and a modified CRITIC method were employed to determine subjective and objective weights respectively. The game theory method was then applied to optimize the combination weights, ensuring rational and scientifically sound weight allocation. Third, the cloud model was employed to effectively transform qualitative concepts into quantitative data, addressing the inherent randomness and fuzziness in emergency management capability evaluations while enabling intuitive visualization of results through cloud maps. Based on the weight calculation results, the ranking of first-level indicators by relative importance is emergency response (B3, 0.336 0), emergency prevention (B1, 0.320 9), emergency preparedness (B2, 0.234 3), and emergency recovery (B4, 0.108 9). Among these, B3 carries the highest weight, highlighting the critical importance of real-time handling capabilities in ship lock operations. At the second-level indicator level, the top three indicators by importance are the emergency management system and organizational structure (C12, 0.042 6), experience summarization and improvement (C30, 0.037 6), and lock gate operation monitoring (C1, 0.033 4). It is worth noting that significant differences exist between subjective and objective weights for certain indicators due to the distinct logical foundations of different weighting methods. Through the game theory–based optimization model that combines both subjective and objective weights, the limitations inherent in using either approach alone can be effectively mitigated, thereby enhancing both the scientific validity and accuracy of weight allocation. A ship lock in Jiangsu Province was selected as a case for empirical analysis, and its operational emergency management capability from 2020 to 2023 was evaluated. The comprehensive cloud digital characteristics of its emergency management capability over the years are (80.767, 2.974, 1.407), (84.330, 2.643, 1.162), (87.867, 2.741, 1.215), and (88.975, 2.938, 1.115), respectively. Overall, the emergency management capability of this ship lock has performed well and has gradually improved since 2020. The emergency management level progressed steadily in 2020 and 2021, and improved significantly after 2022. The evaluation results obtained from the cloud model are broadly consistent with the actual situation of the ship lock, confirming the effectiveness and scientific nature of this assessment method. Furthermore, the results for the first-level indicators show rightward shifts, reflecting the positive development of the lock’s emergency management system under the PPRR framework. Notably, B3 and B4 capabilities improved significantly, whereas B1 and B2 exhibited slower growth, indicating room for further improvement in these two dimensions. A detailed examination of the second-level indicators revealed specific weaknesses in power system monitoring (C3), meteorological monitoring (C7), emergency material storage (C13), and dissemination of emergency knowledge (C15), suggesting areas for targeted improvement by management. Finally, practical recommendations are provided accordingly. This research makes important theoretical contributions by advancing the application of combination weighting methods in infrastructure management and by demonstrating the effectiveness of the cloud model for complex system evaluations. The study’s findings also offer substantial practical value for waterway management authorities. The proposed evaluation framework serves as a standardized tool for benchmarking emergency management performance across different locks and for tracking improvements over time. This study provides both a theoretical basis and practical guidance for management departments to optimize emergency management strategies and enhance management efficiency.

     

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