基于WRF-Hydro与HEC-RAS耦合的温榆河“23·7”极端降雨淹没分析

Inundation analysis of the ‘23·7’ extreme rainfall in Wenyu River Basin based on WRF-Hydro and HEC-RAS Coupling

  • 摘要: 极端降雨引发的城市洪水是当前全球气候变化下的重大灾害风险之一,但现有研究较少在流域尺度开展城市淹没分析。为探究水文水力耦合模型在城市流域进行淹没再现的可行性,本文针对京津冀“23·7”百年一遇极端降雨事件,在城市流域温榆河流域内构建WRF-Hydro分布式水文模型与HEC-RAS二维水力模型耦合框架,分别以中国气象局陆面数据同化系统的降雨、WRF预测降雨为驱动,开展洪水淹没的再现研究。结果表明:两种降雨数据驱动的WRF-Hydro模型均能准确模拟洪水过程,纳什效率系数均大于0.7;该耦合框架成功再现了城市洪水淹没过程,SAR雷达数据验证的区域模拟效果良好,总体准确与F1分数均大于0.7。退水期淹没面积增速大于涨水期的现象反映了极端降雨造成洪水快速产流与城市高比例不透水面积背景下排水能力受限的矛盾。降雨数据准确性会影响淹没模拟结果,本文分别利用两种降雨数据驱动耦合框架进行淹没再现,可为优化城市排水系统以及制定防洪措施解决上述矛盾提供了提供理论支撑与技术参考。

     

    Abstract: Urban flooding triggered by extreme rainfall is a major disaster risk under global climate change. However, current research rarely conducts urban inundation analysis at the watershed scale. To explore the feasibility of hydrological-hydraulic coupled models for inundation reconstruction in urban watersheds, this study established a coupled framework of the WRF-Hydro distributed hydrological model and the HEC-RAS 2D hydraulic model within the Wenyu River Basin, an urban watershed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This framework was applied to reconstruct flood inundation during the ‘23·7’ once-in-a-century extreme rainfall event, driven by both CLDAS rainfall and WRF forecast rainfall. The results are summarized as follows: (1) The ‘23·7’ extreme rainfall event exhibited significant spatial variability. The maximum cumulative rainfall reached 590.70 mm, with a Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) of 3.4 and a Coefficient of Variation (CV) of 1.51. This heavy rainfall was primarily concentrated in the upstream areas of tributaries such as the Dongsha River and Nansha River, while urban areas experienced relatively lower cumulative rainfall. This spatiotemporal analysis of rainfall-runoff, combined with the river network, indicates that urban inundation in the Wenyu River Basin primarily originated from upstream flood discharge. This finding underscores the critical role of watershed hydrological connectivity in the formation of urban floods. (2) Overall, the WRF-Hydro model, driven by both CLDAS and WRF rainfall, successfully simulated the flood processes. Flood simulation performance was better when driven by CLDAS rainfall. However, even with WRF forecast rainfall, the model achieved an NSE of 0.75, a runoff ratio (RR) of 0.87, and a relative error (RE) of −22.95%. The peak time errors were consistently within 1–2 hours, which is superior to the peak time error range reported in similar urban watershed studies. This demonstrates the model's capability for accurate flood forecasting even with forecast rainfall data. (3) The coupled WRF-Hydro hydrological model and HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model successfully reproduced the flood inundation process in the urban watershed from 00:00 on July 31, 2023, to 23:00 on August 5, 2023, under both rainfall scenarios. Validation against SAR data at 08:00 on August 5 showed that both accuracy and F1 scores exceeded 0.7. Notably, in the Dongsha River Riverside Forest Park area, both accuracy and F1 scores exceeded 0.88, indicating excellent local simulation performance. The phenomenon in which the rate of increase in inundation area during the recession phase exceeded that during the rising phase reflects a critical contradiction between rapid runoff generation caused by extreme rainfall and limited drainage capacity in urban areas with a high proportion of impervious surfaces. (4) The WRF-Hydro and HEC-RAS hydrological-hydraulic coupled model constructed in this study demonstrates significant potential for urban watershed flood simulation. Regarding its transferability to other urban watersheds, a key advantage of this study is its reduced reliance on highly detailed data. By generalizing pipe networks using Manning’s parameters, the model can provide rapid, macroscopic predictions of flood inundation extent and trends, making it particularly suitable for data-scarce environments or emergency response scenarios. This approach offers a practical solution for rapid flood assessment and early warning in diverse urban settings. In conclusion, this study provides new insights for optimizing urban drainage systems and formulating flood control measures to address the aforementioned contradiction. The successful application of the WRF-Hydro and HEC-RAS coupled framework offers a valuable tool for urban flood risk assessment and management, particularly in the context of increasing extreme rainfall under climate change. The findings underscore the need for integrated approaches that consider both hydrological and hydraulic processes at the watershed scale to enhance urban resilience to flooding.

     

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