流溪河基流分割参数优化与环境驱动响应

Optimization of baseflow separation parameters and responses to environmental drivers in the Liuxi River basin

  • 摘要: 基流分割是河流生态健康评估与水资源可持续利用的关键技术,但传统方法因参数选取的经验性和物理基础薄弱而存在较大不确定性。针对这一问题,本研究以受人类活动影响显著的亚热带季风气候区——流溪河流域太平场镇水文站为研究对象,提出了基于实测径流与电导率数据的化学质量平衡优化框架。利用该框架对递归数字滤波法(RDF)、滑动最小值法(SMM)和涨落-抬升法(BRM)3种主流基流分割模型的关键参数进行优化,并结合降水、潜在蒸散发和归一化植被指数等要素,分析基流变化的主要驱动因素及季节性响应特征。研究结果表明:(1)基于电导率示踪的参数优化显著提升了模型性能,RDF和SMM模型的Kling-Gupta效率系数分别从0.74和0.79提升至0.80,BRM模型亦达到0.80;(2)参数优化后的多年平均基流量为3.14 m3/s,较经验参数结果(6.64 m3/s)降低52.7%,有效修正了高估误差;(3)NDVI(贡献率47.39%)和降水(贡献率43.59%)是控制基流变化的主导因子,二者呈现显著的季节性差异,其中NDVI对基流产生即时响应,而降水的影响则在滞后1个月时最为显著。研究结果为流溪河流域及类似地区的基流分割提供了优化参数和技术支撑,对区域水资源管理、生态流量计算和气候变化适应具有重要科学意义。

     

    Abstract: Accurate baseflow assessment is a critical technique for evaluating riverine ecological health and ensuring the sustainable use of water resources. Despite its importance, conventional baseflow separation methods, particularly non-tracer approaches such as digital filters, often involve considerable uncertainties. These uncertainties primarily arise from the empirical selection of parameters and the lack of a strong physical basis, which may lead to misinterpretation of hydrological processes. Although international studies have explored the use of tracer methods to calibrate parameters in non-tracer approaches, research in China has largely focused on optimizing individual methods and lacks a systematic framework based on readily available tracers. Furthermore, existing tracer-based parameter optimization studies are mainly concentrated in temperate continental or Mediterranean climates, leaving a notable research gap in subtropical monsoon regions characterized by highly seasonal rainfall. To address these challenges and establish a robust framework for high-precision baseflow estimation, this study focused on the catchment of the Taipingchangzhen Hydrological Station, located in the middle reaches of the Liuxi River basin. This area represents a typical subtropical monsoon climate, with rainfall concentrated during the flood season (April–September) and significant anthropogenic disturbances. We utilized a comprehensive dataset spanning 2020–2023, including daily streamflow, daily electrical conductivity (EC) observations, precipitation, monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) derived from MODIS, and monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) extracted from Landsat imagery. Methodologically, we developed a coupled optimization framework based on the electrical conductivity mass balance (CMB) approach to systematically calibrate three widely used baseflow separation models: the Recursive Digital Filter (RDF), the Smooth Minima Method (SMM), and the Bump and Rise Method (BRM). EC was selected as a cost-effective and reliable tracer because preliminary analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between streamflow and EC (Spearman correlation coefficient = −0.54), confirming its suitability for distinguishing rapid surface runoff from delayed baseflow. To account for seasonal variability, we applied a dynamic monthly extreme-value interpolation method to generate EC time series for both baseflow and surface runoff components, thereby overcoming the physical limitations associated with static annual extreme-value methods. Parameter optimization was conducted using the surrogateopt algorithm, with the objective of maximizing the Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) coefficient between simulated runoff EC and observed EC. Implementation of this EC-guided optimization framework resulted in substantial improvements in model performance. After calibration, the KGE coefficients of the RDF and SMM models increased from 0.74 and 0.79 to 0.80, respectively, while the BRM model also achieved a KGE of 0.80. The optimization process substantially modified key parameters; for example, the maximum baseflow index (BFImax) in the RDF model was revised from the empirical value of 0.25 to 0.12, accurately reflecting the rapid recession characteristics of interflow and shallow groundwater in the study basin. Consequently, the optimized parameters led to a 52.7% reduction in the estimated multi-year average baseflow volume, decreasing from 6.64 m3/s obtained using empirical parameters to a more physically realistic value of 3.14 m3/s. Furthermore, the study revealed pronounced seasonal and interannual variability in baseflow estimates. The empirical-parameter methods (RDF and SMM) exhibited a systematic tendency to overestimate baseflow during the flood season and showed high sensitivity to storm events, resulting in artificially elevated standard deviations ranging from 13.60 to 14.95 m3/s. In contrast, the optimized models, particularly the BRM, demonstrated remarkable stability and a stronger capacity to withstand the influence of intense monsoon rainfall. The BRM proved to be the most robust method under interannual climatic variability, exhibiting the lowest coefficient of variation (0.46) among all evaluated techniques. To further elucidate the physical mechanisms governing baseflow dynamics, we conducted a comprehensive environmental response analysis using an ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple linear regression model. The results identified NDVI as the dominant driving factor, accounting for 47.39% of the observed variation in baseflow, followed closely by precipitation, which contributed 43.59%. In contrast, PET exerted a relatively limited direct influence, contributing only 9.02%. These primary drivers exhibited distinct seasonal variations and temporal lag effects. Specifically, NDVI demonstrated an immediate and synchronous influence on baseflow generation, underscoring the critical role of vegetation in rapid water retention and soil moisture maintenance. Meanwhile, precipitation exhibited a pronounced one-month lagged effect on baseflow, reflecting the time required for rainfall to infiltrate and recharge groundwater flow paths. PET showed a six-month delayed negative effect, indicating gradual depletion of basin water storage through continuous evapotranspiration processes. In conclusion, this study presents optimized parameters and a robust methodological framework for high-precision baseflow separation in the Liuxi River Basin and in geographically similar regions. By reducing uncertainties inherent in empirically driven approaches through an EC-constrained mass balance framework, the study advances the understanding of hydrological processes in subtropical monsoon climates. The integrated findings on model performance and environmental drivers have important theoretical and practical implications for regional water resource management, accurate estimation of ecological instream flows, and the development of adaptive strategies for climate change resilience.

     

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