基于多模型组合的长江三峡段通航风险评价

Navigation risk assessment for the Three Gorges section of the Yangtze River based on multi-model integration

  • 摘要: 自三峡大坝建成后,长江三峡航段通航条件日益复杂,其通航风险评价对库区安全运行至关重要。现有研究多聚焦环境、管理、船舶及人为因素,依赖理论假设与专家经验,存在主观误差,且以往评价研究对长江三峡段船舶通航与事故数据重视不足。针对上述问题,本文一方面收集船舶自动识别系统数据,提取船舶数量与船舶设计载重数据加入风险评价指标体系,另一方面收集事故数据,引入信息量-逻辑回归组合模型分析事故数据,量化影响因子关联度,并将其融入指标体系形成较为客观的因子权重,从而改进模糊综合评价模型。本文分别使用改进前后2种模型对长江三峡段通航风险进行评价,改进后模型评价结果显示2024年三峡段通航总体安全水平为“需要关注”等级,更准确地反映了局部航段实际情况,且发现气象条件、航道复杂性与船舶设计载重吨位对通航安全影响较大。研究结果表明,改进后模型可以兼顾总体风险和局部风险,评价结果对通航安全更具指导意义。

     

    Abstract: Since the completion of the Three Gorges Dam, navigation conditions in the Three Gorges section of the Yangtze River have become increasingly complex, and the assessment of navigation risk is critical to the safe operation of the reservoir area. Existing studies have primarily focused on environmental, managerial, vessel, and human factors, relying on theoretical assumptions and expert experience, which may introduce subjective bias. Additionally, previous assessment studies have not given sufficient attention to vessel navigation and accident data in the Three Gorges section of the Yangtze River. To address these problems, this study collects data on the waterway conditions of the Three Gorges section and expert judgments regarding its navigational conditions to establish a risk assessment indicator system. Subsequently, on the one hand, data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS) are collected to extract vessel count and design deadweight tonnage, which are incorporated into the risk assessment indicator system. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is employed to determine the weights of individual evaluation indicators. Combined with the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) model, and through calculation of a three-tier evaluation matrix, the navigational risk value for the Three Gorges section using the original model is derived. On the other hand, accident data are systematically collected, cleaned, sorted, and subjected to preliminary statistical analysis. An Information Value-Logistic Regression (IV-LR) integrated model is then introduced to analyze the accident data, enabling quantification of the correlation between influencing factors and accident occurrence. These quantified correlations are integrated into the indicator system to form more objective factor weights, thereby improving the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The three-tier evaluation matrix is then recalculated to obtain the improved navigational risk value for the Three Gorges section using the improved model. Finally, a comparative analysis is conducted on the navigational risk assessment results for the Three Gorges section obtained respectively from the original and improved models used in this study. The evaluation results of the original model showed that the overall navigation safety level of the Three Gorges section in 2024 was rated as “Basic Safety,” while the segmental risk assessment found that the safety levels of the Chongqing–Fuling section and the Fuling–Fengdu section were rated as “Needs Attention,” indicating that the model failed to fully reflect the actual conditions of local navigation segments in the overall risk assessment. The evaluation results of the improved model revealed that the integration of the IV-LR model indicated the overall navigational safety level of the Three Gorges section in 2024 was at the “Needs Attention” level, which more accurately reflected the actual conditions of local segments. The model also identified meteorological conditions, waterway complexity, and vessel design tonnage as major factors significantly affecting navigation safety. Additionally, safety awareness and the completeness of the supervision system were identified as potential high-risk factors requiring continuous attention. Factors such as vessel composition, anchorages, berthing areas, and port operation zones were classified as extremely high-risk sources in Section IV. However, their odds ratios showed negative correlations, indicating that existing control measures had already mitigated the risks associated with these factors. The results demonstrate that the improved model can provide evaluation outcomes that account for both overall and local risks, offering stronger practical guidance for navigation safety management in the Three Gorges section. This approach integrates objective accident data with traditional expert knowledge, thereby enhancing the objectivity of risk assessment. The proposed methodology provides valuable support for decision-making related to waterway safety management, early warning system development, and accident prevention strategies. Furthermore, this method is applicable to navigational risk assessment in other complex inland waterway systems, contributing to the broader field of waterway transportation safety research.

     

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