Abstract:
It is of great significance to understand the change rules of the precipitation for predicting the regional water resources situation changes in the future and formulating the decisions of water resources utilization and flood control. Based on the precipitation observation data obtained from 1960 to 2016 in Shenzhen, the comprehensive analysis of the tempo-spatial variation characteristics of the precipitation over the area, such as the spatial variation, the long-term trends, the break point and the periodic oscillations, etc, is carried out by using the empirical orthogonal function decomposition (EOF), the cumulative anomaly curves, the Mann-Kendall and the Spearman nonparametric testing and the Morlet continuous wavelet analysis. The research results show that the annual precipitation in Shenzhen has two distinct spatial distribution patterns in the past 57 years, and there is no significant change trend in the time history of the precipitation, but in the local period, the precipitation shows a sudden change in 1991 or 2004, and showing a gradual change after falling first and then rising. The analysis results also show that the annual precipitation in Shenzhen generally has a significant quasi period of 17-20 years and 5-7 years. In the future, the annual precipitation in Shenzhen will remain at a high level for some time after 2016.