Abstract:
The precipitation is an important component of the hydrological circle. Using the Mann-Kendall′s testing method, the studies of the variation tendency of the precipitation during 1951—2010 has been carried out for the Haihe River basin(HRB). The attribution for the precipitation has been analyzed based on the atmosphere circulation data. The future scenario for the precipitation is estimated by use of the data obtained from the Global climate models (GCMs). The analysis results indicate that: (1)There is a significant decreasing trend toward the precipitation, which reaches 5 per cent of the precipitation in the Haihe River basin during 1951—2010, and it shows a decided tendency to decrease in the summer. (2)There is a positive relationship between the precipitation and Southern oscillation index (SOI); but a negative relationship between the precipitation and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) or Interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). (3)The annual and monthly precipitation might increase against a background of the climate changes in the Haihe River basin in the future. Generally, under the A1B scenario, the increasing trend of the precipitation in the eastern Haihe River basin is higher than that in the western Haihe River basin. These analysis results would be of significance for water resources security and regional social-economic development.