多施工任务多设备配套的系统可靠性分析

System reliability analysis of multi-construction task with multi-equipment matching

  • 摘要: 工程施工系统是由多阶段多施工任务多设备配套组成的复杂系统。针对施工复杂系统设备配套的失效风险问题,采用二元决策图(Binary Decision Diagrams, BDD)图示法分析任务与设备配套的可靠性。首先将某施工系统的各阶段抽象成串并联关系的混合框图结构并建立此结构的故障树,然后利用共同失效组件对故障树进行简化,再基于递归法将简化后的故障树转化为BDD,最后求得BDD里不相交的“0”分支的概率总和即为任务与设备配套系统的可靠度。该方法能够有效解决施工复杂系统设备配套的失效风险问题,运算复杂度低,结果合理,并在工程实例中得到验证,具有广泛的应用价值。

     

    Abstract: An engineering construction system is a complex one which involves multi-stage and multi-construction tasks as well as multi-equipment matching. With regard to the risks caused by the equipment matching failures in a complex construction system, a binary decision diagram method is applied to analyze the matching reliability between tasks and equipments in this study. Firstly, a hybrid diagram with the mixed series-parallel structure (cascade and multiple) is abstracted from each stage of the construction system and a fault tree is built, and then the fault tree is simplified through the simultaneous component failure. Based on the recursion method, the simplified fault tree is transferred to the binary decision diagram method. Finally, the probability sum of non-intersect branch pointing to “0” in the binary decision diagram from the above steps is the reliability of both the equipment matching system and the tasks. This method, with lower computation complexity, applicable in practical projects, and reasonable in analysis results, can effectively solve the risk problems during failures in the complex construction system, has the value of extensive application in the civil engineering construction in the future.

     

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