摘要:
在洪水预警预报中，一些中小流域常常由于水文资料短缺造成分析计算困难。随着流域下垫面地形、植被、土壤等数据的大量获取和数据挖掘技术的不断发展，应用聚类分析等无指导学习方法对流域下垫面大量数据进行分析，根据对象之间距离最近的原则对流域进行分组，得到水文相似流域，从而将有水文资料流域的水文参数应用于水文资料短缺的相似流域，使洪水预报得以实现。 选取浙江省118个具有20年以上雨水情资料的流域进行研究，采用流域长度、流域宽度、河长、河流比降、流域平均坡度、流域形状系数、多年平均1,3,6和12 h面最大降水等10个指标，应用主成分分析对数据进行降维，进而对流域进行聚类分析，将浙江省流域分为23个相似组。在分组基础上，选取其中两组中径流资料大于20年的站点进行多年平均最大洪峰、洪量比对，验证水文相似流域分类合理性。结果表明相似流域组内年最大洪峰、年最大平均1,3,6和12 h洪量具有较大相似性，分类较为合理，从统计学角度为浙江省的洪水预警预报提供新的理论与思路。
Abstract:
In the flood forecasting and warning, there are often difficulties in analyzing and calculating hydrological regime of some medium small river basins due to the shortage of hydrological information. With data acquisition of underlying surface topography, vegetation, soil and sustainable development of the data mining method, it is possible to analyze the law in the hydrology data using the unsupervised learning technique such as a cluster analysis method. Thus the parameters of its similar basins can be used in the flood forecasting of one parameter lacking basin. In this paper 118 river basins in Zhejiang Province, which have more than 20 years precipitation data, have been taken as the case studies. Using the basin length, basin width, river length, river slope, basin average slope, basin shape factor and the average maximum surface precipitation per 1 h, 3 h, 6 h and 12 h, the authors have first reduced the dimensionality using principal components analysis, and then have made the cluster analysis of the basins. The basins in Zhejiang Province are divided into 23 similar groups. On the basis of grouping， hydrological stations which have more than 20 years data of the maximum flood peak and volume are selected for comparison in order to verify whether the grouping is reasonable. The analysis results show that there is a great similarity of the maximum flood peak and volume in the similar basin groups. And the results can provide a new theory and thinking for the flood forecasting in Zhejiang Province from the point of view of statistics.
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