Abstract:
According to the distribution of the back-silting quantity of the Yangtze River estuary’s deep-water channel, the whole channel is divided into three sections: the middle section P2 is section N~H, which is under the most severe back-silting condition while the other two sections are section P1 in the west of section H and section P3 in the east of section N. The chaotic characteristics of the whole and each section of the deep-water channel are analyzed by calculating the saturation correlation dimension and K2 entropy of back-silting quantity time series. The saturation correlation dimensions of sections P1, P2 and P3 are between 1.80 and 2.15 while the K2 entropies are between 0.08 and 0.12. The saturation correlation dimension and K2 entropy of the whole section are larger than each section, which are 2.93 and 0.16 respectively. The analysis results show that the back-silting quantity time series of the Yangtze River estuary’s deep-water channel has chaotic characterisics and that the chaotic characteristic of the whole channel is more complicated than that of each section. The longest time-scale for predicting each section is one year and the time-scale for predicting the whole channel is half a year, according to the time series of the back-silting quantity of the Yangtze River estuary’s deep-water channel in 2011, 2012 and 2013. A general form of the dynamic model of the whole and each section of the Yangtze River estuary’s deep-water channel is given in this paper. 3 to 6-state variables and more than 3 control variables are needed in the model of the whole channel while 2 to 5-state variables and more than 3 control variables are needed in the model of each section of the channel. The general form of the dynamic model of the Yangtze River estuary’s deep-water channel can provide references for the foundation of the back-silting quantity prediction model.