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Development and application of dynamic safety risk analysis system for super-high concrete arch dam
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摘要: 针对特高拱坝运维期内结构安全风险的动态性和复杂性，以及失事后果严重性，基于层次分析法、模糊理论和定量风险评估分析法，利用SQL Server数据库和Visual C#.NET编程技术，研发了一套特高拱坝动态安全风险分析系统。根据特高拱坝的荷载结构特性、安全监测仪器种类繁多和安全监测体系布置复杂的特点，构建了适应不同监测类型和大量安全监测数据的数据库，以及基于监测数据、巡视检查和物探检测的特高拱坝安全综合评价体系，确定特高拱坝事故发生的可能性级别。借助当量法量化分析事故损失，并以此确定损失的级别。最后结合特高拱坝事故发生的可能性级别和由此引起的损失级别，通过风险矩阵评估特高拱坝动态安全风险等级。Abstract: In view of the dynamics and complexity of structural safety risk and the seriousness of accident consequences during the operation and maintenance of the super-high concrete arch dams, a dynamic safety risk analysis system for the super-high concrete arch dam is developed based on the analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy theory and quantitative risk assessment analysis method, by using the SQL Server database and Microsoft Visual C#. NET programming technology. According to the load structure characteristics of the super-high concrete arch dams and the characteristics of various kinds of the safety monitoring instruments and complex layout of the safety monitoring system, a database adapted to different monitoring types and massive safety monitoring data is established. Based on the comprehensive evaluation system of the monitoring data, inspection and geophysical detection for the safety of the super-high concrete arch dam, the probability level of the accident of the super-high concrete arch dam is determined. The economic losses and the impacts on the social environment caused by dam accidents are quantitatively analyzed by means of an equivalent method to determine the loss level. Finally, the risk matrix is used to evaluate the dynamic safety risk level of the super-high concrete arch dam according to the probability level of occurrence of the accident and the loss level caused by the dam accident.
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图 1 特高拱坝动态安全风险分析步骤
Figure 1. Steps for dynamic safety risk analysis of superhigh arch dams
表 1 风险矩阵
Table 1. Risk matrix
安全等级 不同损失下的风险等级 轻度损失 中度损失 重大损失 不安全（检查） 3 4 5 基本安全（关注） 2 3 4 安全可靠（正常） 1 2 3 注：表中1～5分别代表从小（风险最低）到大（风险最高）的不同风险等级。 
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