Email Alerts
RSS
Evolution of drought and flood in the Haihe Rvier Basin for the last 500 years
-
摘要: 研究海河流域近500年旱涝演变规律能为流域防汛抗旱、防灾减灾提供科学依据。基于海河流域内1470—2000年间11个序列较完整站点的旱涝等级数据，采用小波分析、功率谱分析以及经验正交分解方法对海河流域旱涝时空演变规律进行了分析研究。结果表明：（1）海河流域1470—2000年期间经历了干旱（1470—1644年）-湿润（1645—1898年）-干旱（1899—2000年）的旱涝转换；（2）1470—2000年流域旱涝呈现出2~7年、10.4年、19年、22年和25年左右的周期性变化特征，其中10.4和22年周期变化显著；（3）EOF第一模态表现为全流域性的干旱或洪涝，其方差贡献率为44%；第二模态为流域自西向东涝-旱-涝（或旱-涝-旱）的分布特征，其方差贡献率为12%。Abstract: The study on the evolution of drought and flood in the Haihe River Basin for the last 500 years can provide a scientific basis for regional flood control and drought relief, disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the dryness/wetness grade data of 11 stations with complete sequence from 1470 to 2000 in the Haihe River Basin, the temporal and spatial evolution of drought and flood has been detected, using the methods of wavelet analysis, power spectrum analysis and empirical orthogonal decomposition. The results show that: (1) the Haihe River Basin has experienced obvious fluctuation of dry (1470－1644) - wet (1645－1898) - dry (1899－2000); (2) from 1470 to 2000, the occurrence of drought/flood has periodicity of 2~7 a, 10.4 a, 19 a, 22 a and 25 a, of which 10.4 a and 22 a are particularly significant; (3) the first mode of EOF analysis is characterized by drought or flood over the whole basin, and its variance contribution rate is 44%. The second mode, explaining 12% of total variance, shows the distribution characteristics of flood-drought-flood (or drought-flood-drought) from west to east.
-
Key words:
- Haihe River Basin /
- drought and flood /
- periodicity /
- spatial pattern
-
图 2 1470—2000年海河流域旱涝等级序列
Figure 2. Time series of dryness/wetness grade from 1470 to 2000 in the Haihe River Basin
图 3 海河流域旱涝等级序列距平累积曲线
Figure 3. Anomaly cumulative curve of dryness/wetness grade time series
图 4 海河流域旱涝等级序列功率谱分析
Figure 4. Power spectrum analysis of dryness/wetness grade time series
图 5 海河流域10滑动平均旱涝等级cmor2-1小波系数实部分布
（红实线：正值，旱；蓝虚线：负值，涝；黑实线：0线；阴影区：通过显著性水平0.1的红噪声检验区）
Figure 5. Real distribution of Morlet wavelet coefficient based on 10-year moving average dryness/wetness grade series
(Red solid lines show positive values, indicating droughts; blue dashed lines show negative values, indicating waterloggings; black solid lines shows zero. Shadow areas are the 90% confidence spectrum for a red-noise process)
图 6 海河流域10年滑动平均旱涝等级序列功率谱分析
Figure 6. Power spectrum anaylsis of 10-year moving average dryness/wetness grade series
表 1 海河流域各旱涝等级百年发生次数统计
Table 1. Statistics of 100-year occurrences of drought/flood in the Haihe River Basin
时段 流域旱涝发生年数/a 严重洪涝年份 严重干旱年份 涝 偏涝 正常 偏旱 旱 涝+偏涝 旱+偏旱 1470—1500年 0 4 19 7 1 4 8 1484年 1501—1600年 2 26 52 19 1 28 20 1553年, 1569年 1560年 1601—1700年 6 16 50 22 6 22 28 1604年, 1607年, 1626年,
1652年, 1653年, 1668年1601年, 1615年
1639—1641年, 1689年1701—1800年 2 24 61 12 1 26 13 1725年, 1761年 1743年 1801—1900年 6 22 47 23 2 28 25 1801年, 1822年, 1853年,
1871年, 1890年, 1894年1877年, 1900年 1901—2000年 1 21 48 27 3 22 30 1917年 1920年, 1965年, 1997年 合计 17 113 277 110 14 130 124 
下载: 导出CSV
表 2 海河流域各站点近500年旱涝等级统计参数
Table 2. Statistics of dryness/wetness grade series of 11 stations during the past 500 years
站点 均值 标准差 变异系数 偏态系数 发生频率/% 1 2 3 4 5 1+2 4+5 天津 2.89 1.03 0.35 0.07 8.47 26.18 38.98 20.53 5.84 34.65 26.37 沧州 2.91 1.25 0.38 0.09 10.17 28.06 30.32 23.16 8.29 38.23 31.45 德州 3.01 1.57 0.42 −0.02 13.75 23.16 25.05 24.48 13.56 36.91 38.04 唐山 2.93 1.11 0.36 0.02 9.23 24.86 36.53 22.60 6.78 34.09 29.38 北京 3.08 1.19 0.36 −0.13 8.85 20.34 34.46 27.12 9.23 29.19 36.35 保定 2.99 1.14 0.36 −0.12 10.17 19.77 38.42 24.29 7.34 29.94 31.64 石家庄 3.01 1.31 0.38 −0.03 10.73 22.03 32.96 23.73 10.55 32.77 34.27 邯郸 3.07 1.24 0.36 −0.10 8.85 22.79 30.70 28.06 9.60 31.64 37.66 安阳 3.08 1.21 0.36 −0.01 8.66 19.02 40.11 20.34 11.86 27.68 32.20 大同 3.11 1.48 0.39 −0.15 12.24 18.46 29.38 25.99 13.94 30.70 39.92 长治 3.17 1.35 0.37 −0.17 9.23 19.59 29.94 27.87 13.37 28.81 41.24 平均 3.02 1.26 0.37 −0.05 10.03 22.21 33.35 24.38 10.03 32.24 34.41
下载: 导出CSV
-
[1] 中央气象局气象科学研究院. 中国近五百年旱涝分布图集[M]. 北京: 地图出版社, 1981: 321-332. Meteorology Institute of Central Meteorological Bureau. Yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500-year period[M]. Beijing: Cartographic Publishing House, 1981: 321-332. (in Chinese) [2] 张德二, 刘传志. 《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》续补(1980—1992年)[J]. 气象,1993,19(11):41-45. (ZHANG De’er, LIU Chuanzhi. A sequel to <italic>Yearly Charts of Dryness</italic>/<italic>Wetness in China for the Last 500-year Period</italic>[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 1993, 19(11): 41-45. (in Chinese) doi: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.1993.11.009 [3] 张德二, 李小泉, 梁有叶. 《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》的再续补(1993—2000年)[J]. 应用气象学报,2003,14(3):379-384. (ZHANG De’er, LI Xiaoquan, LIANG Youye. An additional sequel to <italic>Yearly Charts of Dryness</italic>/<italic>Wetness in China for the Last 500-year Period</italic> (from 1993 to 2000)<italic></italic>[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2003, 14(3): 379-384. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2003.03.015 [4] 于淑秋, 林学椿. 中国近五百年旱涝型及环流特征[J]. 气象科学研究院院刊,1989,4(2):163-170. (YU Shuqiu, LIN Xuechun. The dryness/wetness types for the last 500-year period and their characteristics of circulation[J]. Journal of Academy of Meteorological Science, 1989, 4(2): 163-170. (in Chinese) [5] 肖贻青, 王健, 姚静. 西安地区近五百年旱涝变化趋势与近百年旱涝成因分析[J]. 干旱区研究,2017,34(6):1448-1456. (XIAO Yiqing, WANG Jian, YAO Jing. Trends of drought and flood in recent 500 years and their causes in recent 100 years in Xi’an[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2017, 34(6): 1448-1456. (in Chinese) [6] 杨冉冉, 王洪波, 廉丽姝, 等. 曲阜地区五百年来旱涝灾害时序特征研究[J]. 曲阜师范大学学报,2015,41(4):93-97. (YANG Ranran, WANG Hongbo, LIAN Lishu, et al. The analysis of drought and flood timing feature in recent five hundred years of Qufu[J]. Journal of Qufu Normal University, 2015, 41(4): 93-97. (in Chinese) [7] 刘昌明. 中国水文地理[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2014: 511-519. LIU Changming. China hydrography[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2014: 511-519. (in Chinese) [8] PERCIVAL D B, WALDEN A T. Wavelet methods for time series analysis[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000. [9] KUMAR P, FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU E. A multicomponent decomposition of spatial rainfall fields: 1. Segregation of large- and small-scale features using wavelet transforms[J]. Water Resources Research, 1993, 29(8): 2515-2532. doi: 10.1029/93WR00548 [10] SCHAEFLI B, MARAUN D, HOLSCHNEIDER M. What drives high flow events in the Swiss Alps? Recent developments in wavelet spectral analysis and their application to hydrology[J]. Advances in Water Resources, 2007, 30(12): 2511-2525. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2007.06.004 [11] LABAT D. Wavelet analysis of the annual discharge records of the world's largest rivers[J]. Advances in Water Resources, 2008, 31(1): 109-117. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2007.07.004 [12] TORRENCE C, COMPO G P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1998, 79(1): 61-78. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0061:APGTWA>2.0.CO;2 [13] 冯志刚, 陈星, 程兴无, 等. 显著经验正交函数分析及其在淮河流域暴雨研究中的应用[J]. 气象学报,2014,72(6):1245-1256. (FENG Zhigang, CHEN Xing, CHENG Xingwu, et al. DEOF analysis and its application to the research on the rainstorms in the Huaihe River Basin[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2014, 72(6): 1245-1256. (in Chinese) [14] HANNACHI A, JOLLIFFE I T, STEPHENSON D B. Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science: a review[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2007, 27(9): 1119-1152. doi: 10.1002/joc.1499 [15] NORTH G R, BELL T L, CAHALAN R F, et al. Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 1982, 110(7): 699-706. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<0699:SEITEO>2.0.CO;2 [16] 卢路, 刘家宏, 秦大庸. 海河流域1469—2008年旱涝变化趋势及演变特征分析[J]. 水电能源科学,2011,29(9):8-11. (LU Lu, LIU Jiahong, QIN Dayong. Analysis of drought/waterlogging variation tendency and evolution features in Haihe river basin during 1469-2008 years[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2011, 29(9): 8-11. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7709.2011.09.003 [17] 孙振江, 王怀福, 王玉顺. 德州市旱涝特性及成因分析[J]. 水利科技,2009(7):37-39. (SUN Zhenjiang, WANG Huaifu, WANG Yushun. Drought and waterlogging character and reasonable analysis in Dezhou[J]. Water Resources Scientific Technique, 2009(7): 37-39. (in Chinese) -
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 877
- HTML全文浏览量: 335
- PDF下载量: 53
- 被引次数: 0
