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基于MLP方法的长江-洞庭湖江湖水沙交换演变规律研究

贾雅兰 施勇

贾雅兰,施勇. 基于MLP方法的长江-洞庭湖江湖水沙交换演变规律研究[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2020(5):1-9 doi:  10.12170/20190627001
引用本文: 贾雅兰,施勇. 基于MLP方法的长江-洞庭湖江湖水沙交换演变规律研究[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2020(5):1-9 doi:  10.12170/20190627001
(JIA Yalan, SHI Yong. Preliminary study on evolutions of Yangtze River and Dongting Lake water and sediment fluxes exchanges based on MLP method[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2020(5): 1-9. (in Chinese)) doi:  10.12170/20190627001
Citation: (JIA Yalan, SHI Yong. Preliminary study on evolutions of Yangtze River and Dongting Lake water and sediment fluxes exchanges based on MLP method[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2020(5): 1-9. (in Chinese)) doi:  10.12170/20190627001

基于MLP方法的长江-洞庭湖江湖水沙交换演变规律研究

doi: 10.12170/20190627001
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC0405301);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(Y520012)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    贾雅兰(1992—),女,云南文山人,硕士研究生,主要从事江湖水沙关系演变研究。E-mail: jiayalan@sina.com

  • 中图分类号: TV142

Preliminary study on evolutions of Yangtze River and Dongting Lake water and sediment fluxes exchanges based on MLP method

  • 摘要: 基于多层感知机MLP(Multi-layers Perceptrons)方法建立了长江和洞庭湖水沙交换关键节点间的回归关系,计算并分析江湖水沙交换各节点的联动变化。研究结果如下:(1)城汉河段(城陵矶-汉口)的河床冲淤及水情变化是江湖水沙通量演变的重要环节,分析下荆江裁弯后三口和干流水沙通量的变化可知,城汉河段淤积严重导致荆江水沙下泄受阻;(2)三峡水库运用后,荆江河段上下游间、主支汊间的水沙联系减弱明显;(3)当汉口水位高于26 m时,汉口水位每抬升1 m对应的螺山流量增量基本稳定,该值在调弦口建闸前后、裁弯后、葛洲坝截流后和三峡水库运用后分别为4 400,4 300,4 500~4 700 和4 000 m3/s;(4)荆江三口水沙分泄能力对宜昌站来水量的响应程度逐渐减弱,在三峡水库运用前各时段内,三口水沙分泄能力对来水量的响应程度在汛期宜昌站流量为35 000 m3/s时最强,三峡水库运用后,则是在汛前和汛后宜昌站流量为25 000 m3/s时最强。
  • 图  1  荆江-洞庭湖河系示意

    Figure  1.  Jingjiang River and Dongting Lake system

    图  2  汉口水位与螺山站流量关系

    Figure  2.  Regression relationships between the water-level of Hankou and the flow of Luoshan

    图  3  螺山站流量与城陵矶水位、城陵矶水位与南咀水位的关系变化

    Figure  3.  Regression relationships between the flow of Luoshan and the water-level of Chenlingji and between the water-level of Chenlingji and Nanzui

    图  4  荆江三口、监利和沙市输沙率关系

    Figure  4.  Regression relationships among sediment fluxes of the three outlets, Jianli and Shashi

    图  5  各研究时段江湖水沙交换各关键节点处响应关系变化

    Figure  5.  Response relationships at key nodes of water and sediment exchange in Yangtze River and Dongting Lake

    图  6  荆江三口、监利及沙市输沙率对宜昌流量变化的响应

    Figure  6.  Response of sediment transport rates of the three outlets of Jingjiang, Jianli and Shashi stations to discharge variation in Yichang

    表  1  不同时期宜昌至汉口河段年平滩河槽冲淤强度

    Table  1.   Intensity of sediment and scour in Yichang-Hankou reach at different stages

    河段
    名称
    河段
    长度/km
    年平滩河槽冲淤强度/(104m3·(km·a)−1
    1966—1981年1982—2002年2003—2016年
    宜枝60.8−6.9−6.4−18.3
    上荆江171.7−5.6−7.4−23.3
    下荆江175.5−7.73.3−15.4
    荆江347.2−6.6−2.0−19.3
    城汉251.03.01.4−11.2
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  各时段江湖水沙交换关键节点回归关系判定系数

    Table  2.   Coefficients of determination for regression relationships of key nodes in water and sediment exchange in Yangtze River and Dongting Lake in each period

    节点及关系调弦口建闸前/后下荆江裁弯完成后葛洲坝截流后三峡水库蓄水运用后
    Z汉口-Q螺山 0.979/0.969 0.969 0.973 0.964
    Q螺山-Z城陵矶 0.975/0.976 0.986 0.988 0.992
    Z城陵矶-Z南咀 0.936/0.927 0.923 0.938 0.907
    Z南咀-S三口 0.867/0.859 0.807 0.733 0.684
    S三口-S监利 0.900/0.857 0.921 0.923 0.816
    S监利-S沙市 0.888/0.910 0.944 0.943 0.828
    Q宜昌-S三口 0.951/0.974 0.972 0.841 0.833
    Q宜昌-S监利 0.924/0.905 0.897 0.907 0.804
    Q宜昌-S沙市 0.889/0.925 0.943 0.915 0.812
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  各研究时段ΔS沙市S三口变化(ΔQ宜昌=1 000 m3/s)

    Table  3.   Ratio of the sediment flux increase of Shashi to the three outlets

    宜昌站流量/
    (m3·s−1)
    ΔS沙市S三口
    调弦口建闸前/后下荆江裁弯后葛洲坝截流后三峡水库蓄水运用后
    5 000 24.2/41.6 321.3 4219.2 836.0
    10 000 3.1/4.5 10.0 29.2 41.4
    15 000 2.0/2.4 4.2 5.8 9.0
    20 000 1.7/2.0 3.1 3.4 5.0
    25 000 1.6/1.8 2.8 2.9 4.3
    30 000 1.5/1.7 2.7 3.0 4.6
    35 000 1.4/1.7 2.7 3.4 5.6
    40 000 1.3/1.8 2.7 4.0 7.2
    45 000 1.2/1.8 2.8 4.7 9.5
    50 000 1.2/1.8 2.8 5.7 12.9
    55 000 1.1/1.9 2.9 6.8 17.6
    60 000 1.0/1.9 3.0 8.2
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2019-06-27
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