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Preliminary study on evolutions of Yangtze River and Dongting Lake water and sediment fluxes exchanges based on MLP method
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摘要: 基于多层感知机MLP(Multi-layers Perceptrons)方法建立了长江和洞庭湖水沙交换关键节点间的回归关系，计算并分析江湖水沙交换各节点的联动变化。研究结果如下：（1）城汉河段（城陵矶-汉口）的河床冲淤及水情变化是江湖水沙通量演变的重要环节，分析下荆江裁弯后三口和干流水沙通量的变化可知，城汉河段淤积严重导致荆江水沙下泄受阻；（2）三峡水库运用后，荆江河段上下游间、主支汊间的水沙联系减弱明显；（3）当汉口水位高于26 m时，汉口水位每抬升1 m对应的螺山流量增量基本稳定，该值在调弦口建闸前后、裁弯后、葛洲坝截流后和三峡水库运用后分别为4 400，4 300，4 500～4 700 和4 000 m3/s；（4）荆江三口水沙分泄能力对宜昌站来水量的响应程度逐渐减弱，在三峡水库运用前各时段内，三口水沙分泄能力对来水量的响应程度在汛期宜昌站流量站流量为35 000 m3/s时最强，三峡水库运用后，则是在汛前和汛后宜昌站流量为25 000 m3/s时最强。Abstract: This study establishes the regression relationship among key nodes of water and sediment exchange in the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake on the basis of MLP (Multi-layers Perceptrons) method and calculates and analyzes the linkage changes of nodes between the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake. This study draws the following conclusions: (1) Analysis of changes of water and sediment flux in the three outlets and the main stream after Jingjiang artificial cut off shows that the riverbed erosion and water regime change in the Chenghan River section is one of the most important links in the water and sediment flux evolution of the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake. The serious sedimentation of the Chenghan River section leads to the discharge of water and sediment in Jingjiang blocked. (2) After the application of the TGP (Three Gorges Project), the flow and sediment relations between the upper and lower reaches, the mainstream and tributaries of the Jingjiang are weakened in a relatively prominent degree. (3) When the water level of Hankou is higher than 26 m, the flow increase of Luoshan is basically stable when the water level of Hankou has a rise of 1 m. The stable value is 4,400 m3/s, 4,300 m3/s, 4,500~4,700 m3/s and 4,000 m3/s respectively before and after the sluice construction of Tiaoxian outlet, after the Jingjiang cut off, after the interception of Gezhouba and the operation of the TGP. (4) The response of water and sediment discharge capacities of the three outlets of Jingjiang to Yichang's inflow is weakened gradually. During time intervals before the application of TGP, the response of water and sediment discharge capacities of the three outlets to Yichang's inflow is the strongest when the water discharge of Yichang is 35,000 m3/s in the flood season. After TGP is applied, the response is the strongest when the water discharge of Yichang is 25,000 m3/s before and after the flood season.
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图 2 汉口水位与螺山站流量关系
Figure 2. Regression relationships between the water-level of Hankou and the flow of Luoshan
图 3 螺山站流量与城陵矶水位、城陵矶水位与南咀水位的关系变化
Figure 3. Regression relationships between the flow of Luoshan and the water-level of Chenlingji and between the water-level of Chenlingji and Nanzui
图 4 荆江三口、监利和沙市输沙率关系
Figure 4. Regression relationships among sediment fluxes of the three outlets, Jianli and Shashi
图 5 各研究时段江湖水沙交换各关键节点处响应关系变化
Figure 5. Response relationships at key nodes of water and sediment exchange in Yangtze River and Dongting Lake
图 6 荆江三口、监利及沙市输沙率对宜昌流量变化的响应
Figure 6. Response of sediment transport rates of the three outlets of Jingjiang, Jianli and Shashi stations to discharge variation in Yichang
表 1 不同时期宜昌至汉口河段年平滩河槽冲淤强度
Table 1. Intensity of sediment and scour in Yichang-Hankou reach at different stages
河段
名称河段
长度/km年平滩河槽冲淤强度/（104m3·(km·a)−1） 1966—1981年 1982—2002年 2003—2016年 宜枝 60.8 −6.9 −6.4 −18.3 上荆江 171.7 −5.6 −7.4 −23.3 下荆江 175.5 −7.7 3.3 −15.4 荆江 347.2 −6.6 −2.0 −19.3 城汉 251.0 3.0 1.4 −11.2 
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表 2 各时段江湖水沙交换关键节点回归关系判定系数
Table 2. Coefficients of determination for regression relationships of key nodes in water and sediment exchange in Yangtze River and Dongting Lake in each period
节点及关系 调弦口建闸前/后 下荆江裁弯完成后 葛洲坝截流后 三峡水库蓄水运用后 Z汉口-Q螺山 0.979/0.969 0.969 0.973 0.964 Q螺山-Z城陵矶 0.975/0.976 0.986 0.988 0.992 Z城陵矶-Z南咀 0.936/0.927 0.923 0.938 0.907 Z南咀-S 三口 0.867/0.859 0.807 0.733 0.684 S三口-S监利 0.900/0.857 0.921 0.923 0.816 S监利-S沙市 0.888/0.910 0.944 0.943 0.828 Q宜昌-S三口 0.951/0.974 0.972 0.841 0.833 Q宜昌-S监利 0.924/0.905 0.897 0.907 0.804 Q宜昌-S沙市 0.889/0.925 0.943 0.915 0.812
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表 3 各研究时段ΔS沙市/ΔS三口变化(ΔQ宜昌=1 000 m3/s)
Table 3. Ratio of the sediment flux increase of Shashi to the three outlets
宜昌站流量/
(m3·s−1)ΔS沙市/ΔS三口 调弦口建闸前/后 下荆江裁弯后 葛洲坝截流后 三峡水库蓄水运用后 5 000 24.2/41.6 321.3 4 219.2 836.0 6 000 11.7/19.8 95.7 924.5 514.3 $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ 10 000 3.1/4.5 10.0 29.2 41.4 11 000 2.7/3.8 7.7 18.2 27.1 $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ 15 000 2.0/2.4 4.2 5.8 9.0 16 000 1.9/2.3 3.8 4.9 7.6 $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ 20 000 1.7/2.0 3.1 3.4 5.0 21 000 1.7/1.9 3.0 3.2 4.7 $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ 25 000 1.6/1.8 2.8 2.9 4.3 26 000 1.5/1.8 2.7 2.9 4.3 $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ 30 000 1.5/1.7 2.7 3.0 4.6 31 000 1.5/1..7 2.7 3.1 4.8 $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ 35 000 1.4/1.7 2.7 3.4 5.6 36 000 1.4/1.8 2.7 3.5 5.8 $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ 40 000 1.3/1.8 2.7 4.0 7.2 41 000 1.3/1.8 2.7 4.1 7.6 $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ 45 000 1.2/1.8 2.8 4.7 9.5 46 000 1.2/1.8 2.8 4.9 10.1 $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ 50 000 1.2/1.8 2.8 5.7 12.9 51 000 1.1/1.9 2.9 5.9 13.7 $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ $ \vdots $ 55 000 1.1/1.9 2.9 6.8 17.6 56 000 1.1/1.9 2.9 7.1 18.8 57 000 1.1/1.9 2.9 7.4 20.0 58 000 1.0/1.9 3.0 7.6 21.3 59 000 1.0/1.9 3.0 7.9 22.7 60 000 1.0/1.9 3.0 8.2
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