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Application of fuzzy set pair analysis method based on entropy weight in flood season staging of Xiluodu Reservoir
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摘要: 溪洛渡水利枢纽工程是长江防洪体系的重要组成部分，为提高溪洛渡水库的防洪能力和兴利效益，实现金沙江流域洪水资源的安全利用，探讨溪洛渡水库汛期合理划分并进行分期调度是十分必要的。收集并确定了影响溪洛渡水库汛期分期的水文气象因素，建立了基于熵权的模糊集对分析法，利用该方法将溪洛渡水库的汛期划分为次汛期、过渡期与主汛期，最后与模糊集分析法、集对分析法进行了对比分析。研究结果表明，熵权模糊集对分析法简单实用，能客观反映金沙江流域暴雨洪水特性对汛期的影响，汛期分期成果合理，与模糊集分析法、集对分析法的分期结论基本一致。提出的熵权模糊集对分析法用于汛期分期合理可行，为水库汛期动态汛限水位的制定提供了参考依据。Abstract: Xiluodu Hydroproject is an important part of the Yangtze River flood-control system. It is necessary to explore the reasonable flood season staging of Xiluodu Reservoir and its stage regulation for improving the flood control capacity and utilizable benefit, and realizing the safe utilization of flood water resource in the Jinsha River basin. The hydrometeorological factors affecting the flood season staging of Xiluodu Reservoir are collected and determined in this paper, and then a fuzzy set pair analysis method based on entropy weight is established. The flood season of Xiluodu Reservoir is divided into secondary flood season, transitional flood season and main flood season by using the established method. Finally, the results of flood season staging from the established method, the fuzzy set analysis method and the set pair analysis method are compared and analyzed. The comparison shows that the fuzzy set pair analysis method based on entropy weight is simple and practical, and can objectively reflect the impact of the characteristics of the rainstorm and flood in the Jinsha River basin in the flood season. The results of the flood season staging are basically consistent with the conclusions of the fuzzy set analysis method and the set pair analysis method, which proves that the staging is reasonable. The proposed fuzzy set pair analysis method based on entropy weight is reasonable and feasible in flood season staging, which provides the reference for the establishment of dynamic limited flood water level in reservoir flood season.
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Key words:
- Xiluodu Reservoir /
- flood season staging /
- weight /
- entropy /
- fuzzy set pair analysis
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表 1 汛期分期指标特征值
Table 1. Characteristic value of flood season staging index
时段标号 时段 X1/mm X2/108 m3 X3/108 m3 X4/(m3·s−1) X5/次 T1 5月上旬 15.8 1.87 5.42 19 030 0 T2 5月中旬 20.8 2.14 6.15 21 531 0 T3 5月下旬 30.2 2.59 7.49 28 513 0 T4 6月上旬 38.1 3.27 9.36 32 296 0 T5 6月中旬 46.8 4.62 13.05 44 010 0 T6 6月下旬 54.8 6.97 19.77 65 792 2 T7 7月上旬 56.4 8.74 25.00 83 655 2 T8 7月中旬 49.9 9.88 28.48 96 225 7 T9 7月下旬 51.8 10.33 29.53 105 605 10 T10 8月上旬 43.3 9.96 28.67 96 902 8 T11 8月中旬 44.4 10.15 29.05 97 607 13 T12 8月下旬 48.6 10.37 29.74 108 382 8 T13 9月上旬 38.2 10.45 30.23 103 041 17 T14 9月中旬 39.7 9.91 28.39 97 660 5 T15 9月下旬 29.7 9.24 26.74 90 999 3 T16 10月上旬 24.6 7.71 22.15 76 525 1 T17 10月中旬 13.4 6.54 18.86 64 204 1 T18 10月下旬 10.9 5.16 14.97 56 115 0 
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表 2 汛期分期标准
Table 2. Standard of flood season staging
类别 X1/mm X2/108 m3 X3/108 m3 X4/(m3·s−1) X5/次 均值 36.5 7.22 20.73 71 561 4 离差 12.3 2.73 7.86 26 777 4 次汛期 [0，30.4) [0，5.86) [0，16.80) [0，58 173) [0，2) 过渡期 [30.4，42.7) [5.86，8.59) [16.80，24.66) [58 173，84 950) [2，6) 主汛期 [42.7，+ $\infty $ )[8.59，+ $\infty $ )[24.66，+ $\infty $ )[84 950，+ $\infty $ )[6，+ $\infty $ )
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表 3 汛期各时段加权平均联系度
Table 3. Weighted average connection degree of each period in flood season
时段标号 加权平均联系度 分期结果 时段标号 加权平均联系度 分期结果 gi,1 gi,2 gi,3 gi,1 gi,2 gi,3 T1 0 0 1 前汛期 T10 1.000 0 0 主汛期 T2 0 0 1 前汛期 T11 1 0 0 主汛期 T3 0 0 1.000 前汛期 T12 1 0 0 主汛期 T4 0.043 0.127 0.830 前汛期 T13 0.876 0.124 0 主汛期 T5 0.170 0 0.830 前汛期 T14 0.811 0.189 0 主汛期 T6 0.170 0.442 0.388 过渡期 T15 0.617 0.107 0.277 主汛期 T7 0.768 0.019 0.213 主汛期 T16 0.223 0.394 0.383 过渡期 T8 1 0 0 主汛期 T17 0. 0.304 0.696 后汛期 T9 1 0 0 主汛期 T18 0 0 1 后汛期
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表 4 分期结果对比
Table 4. Comparison of staging results
方法 前汛期 向主汛期过渡期 主汛期 向后汛期过渡期 后汛期 本文方法 5月上旬—6月中旬 6月下旬 7月上旬—9月下旬 10月上旬 10月中旬—10月下旬 模糊集分析法 5月上旬—6月下旬 — 7月上旬—9月下旬 10月上旬 10月中旬—10月下旬 集对分析法 5月上旬—6月中旬 6月下旬 7月上旬—9月下旬 10月上旬—10月中旬 10月下旬
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