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The future water resources regime of the Yellow River basin in the context of climate change
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摘要: 开展流域水资源变化趋势研究是水资源规划和开发利用的基础工作。基于RCPs（Representative Concentration Pathways）排放情景下7个全球气候模式的气候情景资料，分析了黄河流域未来气温及降水的变化趋势；采用RCCC-WBM模型动态模拟了黄河流域未来水资源情势。结果表明：黄河流域在未来30年（2021—2050年）气温将持续显著升高（线性升率为0.24～0.35 ℃/（10 a））；与基准期（1961—1990年）相比，流域降水总体可能增多，但对降水变化预估的不确定性较大；受气候变化影响，黄河流域未来水资源量较基准期的可能会略微偏少，流域水资源供需矛盾可能进一步加剧；不确定性及其带来的评估风险是目前及未来气候变化影响及水资源评估中需要加强研究的重要内容。Abstract: The future water resources prediction is a fundamental work for water resources planning and sustainable utilization. Based on the RCPs climate change scenarios of 7 GCMs projections, the variation trend of temperature and precipitation in the coming decades over the Yellow River basin were investigated, and the future water resources of the Yellow River basin were simulated by using RCCC-WBM model and downscaled climate change projections. The results show that: (1) Temperature will probably continue to rise significantly with a linear rising rate of 0.24~0.35 ℃/(10 a); (2) The future precipitation will likely increase slightly, with a higher uncertainty; (3) As a result of climate change, water resources over the Yellow River basin will probably decrease in the coming decades, which will aggravate the conflict of water supply and demands to some extent. The research on the uncertainty and the induced-risk in future water resources prediction is a major issue which needs to be enhanced in the further study.
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Key words:
- the Yellow River basin /
- climate change /
- water resources /
- variation trend
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图 1 黄河流域水系及气象站点和水文站点分布示意
Figure 1. River system and locations of the meteorological stations and hydrometric stations in the Yellow River basin
图 2 3种排放情景下未来不同时期黄河流域气温较基准期的变化
Figure 2. Changes in temperature over the Yellow River basin of the decades during 2021-2050 relative to the baseline of 1961-1990 under the three RCP scenarios
图 3 3种排放情景下未来不同时期黄河流域降水较基准期的变化
Figure 3. Changes in precipitation over the Yellow River basin of the decades during 2021-2050 relative to the baseline of 1961-1990 under the three RCP scenarios
图 4 3种排放情景下黄河流域2021—2050年气温较基准期变化的空间分布
Figure 4. The spatial pattern of temperature changes in 2021-2050 relative to baseline (1961-1990) over the Yellow River basin under the three RCPs scenarios
图 5 3种排放情景下黄河流域2021—2050年降水量较基准期变化的空间分布
Figure 5. The spatial pattern of precipitation changes in 2021-2050 relative to baseline (1961-1990) over the Yellow River basin under the three RCPs scenarios
图 6 3种排放情景下黄河水资源量较基准期的变化
Figure 6. Changes in runoff in the Yellow River basin of the decades during 2021-2050 relative to the baseline (1961-1990) under the three RCP scenarios
表 1 本研究采用的7个气候模式基本信息
Table 1. Basic information of 7 CMIP5 GCMs used in this study
序号 全球气候模式 国家 序号 全球气候模式 国家 1 GISS-E2 美国 5 MIROC 日本 2 CNRM-CM5 法国 6 BNU 中国 3 MPI 德国 7 BCC-CSM 中国 4 MRI-CGCM3 日本 
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表 2 黄河流域典型子流域基本信息及1955—1969年径流模拟效果
Table 2. Basic information of typical catchments of the Yellow River and runoff simulation results for 1955-1969
序号 控制站 水系 集水面积/km2 率定期1955—1965年 验证期1966—1969年 f NSE/% e RE/% f NSE/% e RE/% 1 华县 渭河 106 498 87.9 2.7 86.6 3.5 2 河津 汾河 38 728 74.7 1.1 74.5 2.3 3 状头 北洛河 25 645 65.8 1.3 65.3 2.8 4 黑石关 伊洛河 18 563 84.2 2.4 83.4 4.2 5 洪德 泾河 4 640 61.2 1.0 60.9 1.5 6 大宁 黄河 3 992 85.6 1.2 85.8 2.1 7 王道恒塔 窟野河 3 839 63.2 −2.5 62.1 −3.3 8 横山 无定河 2 415 63.7 2.4 62.6 4.9 9 平凉 泾河 1 305 73.5 −0.2 68.5 3.3 10 兴县 黄河 650 74.4 4.0 70.5 4.1 11 延川 清涧河 3 468 66.5 3.4 63.9 3.7 12 后大成 三川河 4 102 78.3 −0.2 75.8 2.8 13 唐乃亥 黄河 121 972 76.2 1.9 74.8 3.4 14 红旗 洮河 24 973 72.2 1.3 72.7 2.8 15 民和 湟水 15 342 86.5 0.4 86.9 0.8 16 享堂 大通河 15 126 78.1 0.5 74.0 3.6 17 折桥 大夏河 6 843 65.2 3.4 62.3 −2.1 18 秦安 渭河 9 805 72.1 −1.3 66.3 2.4 19 龙门 黄河 497 552 70.4 −2.3 67.4 3.7 20 花园口 黄河 730 036 68.9 −2.2 65.8 2.6
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