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System dynamics model-based water demand prediction under changing environment with consideration of physical mechanism
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摘要: 随着气候变化与人类活动作用的加剧，流域水资源受变化环境的影响愈加显著。研究变化环境下的流域水资源系统变化特征及需水预测对支撑流域水资源管理与合理配置具有重要的指导意义。基于系统动力学原理，耦合了考虑物理机制的需水预测方法，建立水资源系统模型，以黄河流域为例，分析了多因子驱动及多要素胁迫作用下黄河流域水资源系统变化特征，采用MPI气候模式预估的未来气温、降水结果及未来流域5种不同的经济社会发展情形，预测了黄河流域2017—2030年的水资源供需演变趋势。结果表明：①黄河流域的生活需水量随着流域人口及人均用水需求的增加不断增长。随着产业结构调整，工业需水量呈现缓慢减少态势，生态及三产需水量逐年增加，农业灌溉需水量呈下降趋势；②在加强流域水资源管理力度、增加节水技术投资的前提下，保障流域经济、社会协调发展，注重发展经济的同时兼顾流域生态环境保护，满足黄河流域下一阶段的经济社会可持续发展的要求；③为保障黄河流域水资源可持续发展，实现黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展，需要调整流域水资源管理策略，提高节水程度，促进流域产业结构优化。Abstract: With the intensification of climate change and human activities, water resources in the basin are more and more affected by the changing environment. It is of great significance to study the change characteristics of watershed water resources system and water demand prediction in the changing environment to support the management and rational allocation of watershed water resources. Based on the principle of system dynamics, coupled with the water demand prediction method considering physical mechanism, this article establishes the model of water resources system. Taking the Yellow River basin as an example, this paper analyzes the change characteristics of water resources system in the Yellow River basin under the action of multi-factor driving and multi-element stress, and predicts the evolution trend of water resources supply and demand in the Yellow River basin from 2017 to 2030 according to five different economic and social development situations in the future basin and the predicted future temperature and precipitation results using MPI climate model. The results show that: (1) The domestic water demand of the Yellow River basin increases continuously with the increase of the population and the per capita water demand of the basin. With the adjustment of industrial structure, the water demand for industry shows a trend of slow decrease, while the water demand for ecology and production increases year by year. (2) On the premise of strengthening the river basin water resources management and increasing the investment in water-saving technology, we should ensure the coordinated development of the basin economy and society, pay attention to the development of the economy while giving consideration to ecological environment protection in the basin, and meet the requirements of sustainable economic and social development in the next stage of the Yellow River basin. (3) In order to ensure the sustainable development of water resources in the Yellow River basin, and realize the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin, it is necessary to adjust the strategies of water resources management in the basin, improve the degree of water-saving, and promote the optimization of the industrial structure of the basin.
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Key words:
- system dynamics /
- physical mechanism /
- water demand forecast /
- Yellow River basin
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图 3 黄河水资源系统流图
Figure 3. System dynamics model flow chart of water resources in the Yellow River
表 1 SD模型主要参数方程
Table 1. Main parametric equations of SD model
子系统 参 数 方 程 人口 城镇居民生活用水定额/(L/(d×人)) (高温天数/365+1/2×(1−高温天数/365))×(57+(0.5+1/3.1416×
ARCTAN((人均GDP−3) /5))×76−2×居民水价)+烹饪冲厕用水定额人口变化量/(万人/a) 总人口数量×人口变化率/1000 城镇人口数量/万人 总人口数量×城镇化率 生活用水量/亿m3 农村居民生活用水量+城镇居民生活用水量 经济 GDP总量/亿元 INTEG(GDP增加量，13588.5) GDP增长率/% (2006,0.125)，(2012,0.084)，(2015,0.065) 万元工业增加值用水量/ m3 EXP(18.0546−3.3189×LN(工业水重复利用率)−0.16231×LN(工业水价)+0.1451×LN(气温)) 农业灌溉需水量/亿m3 (果林净灌溉需水量+农田净灌溉需水量)/灌溉水利用系数 生态 生态需水量/亿m3 城市绿地用水+河湖补水量+环卫用水+生态林草用水 供需 供水量/亿m3 调水量+中水再生利用量+地下水供水量+地表水供水量 总需水量/亿m3 生活需水量+生态需水量+工业需水量+三产需水量+农业需水量 供需缺口/亿m3 IF THEN ELSE(总需水量−总供水量>=0, 总需水量−总供水量, 0) 
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表 2 2006—2017年模型仿真结果误差统计
Table 2. Error statistics of model simulation results from 2006 to 2017
指标 数据性质 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 农田灌溉需水量 历史值/亿m3 346.2 324.9 317.8 323.0 327.0 330.4 321.5 336.4 330.8 328.5 321.4 317.7 仿真值/亿m3 324.5 293.4 310.6 316.2 287.3 321.8 277.3 305.0 287.6 330.5 303.4 315.8 误差/% −6.26 −9.69 −2.27 −2.11 −12.13 −2.60 −13.74 −9.33 −13.07 0.62 −5.60 −0.61 生活需水量 历史值/亿m3 31.1 29.7 32.2 34.7 36.2 38.9 38.4 37.7 38.6 39.4 40.3 41.8 仿真值/亿m3 29.0 29.8 30.3 31.9 32.7 33.4 34.3 36.6 36.4 37.6 38.5 38.9 误差/% −6.71 0.13 −6.11 −8.12 −9.77 −14.12 −10.62 −2.71 −5.71 −4.69 −4.38 −6.98
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表 3 模型灵敏度分析结果
Table 3. Sensitivity analysis results of model
指标 GDP增长率 人口增长率 再生水利用率 城市绿地面积增长率 灌溉面积变化率 三产需水量 0.5764 0 0.0011 0.0004 0.0007 农业需水量 0.0003 0 0 0 0.0268 工业需水量 0.5764 0.0001 0.0011 0.0004 0.0007 总供水量 0.0090 0.0001 0.0183 0 0 生态环境需水 0.0028 0 0.0007 0.3629 0.0004 生活需水量 0.0168 0.0257 0.0001 0 0.0001 平均灵敏度 0.1970 0.0043 0.0035 0.0606 0.0048
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表 4 不同情景下黄河流域水资源系统的主要参数
Table 4. Main parameters of water resources system in the Yellow River basin under different scenarios
情景 年份 GDP增长率 工业水重复利用率/% 人口增长率 城镇化率 城市绿地面积增长率 灌溉水利用系数 现状延续情景 2020 0.058 0 72.50 0.0035 0.540 0.060 0.525 0 2025 0.049 0 77.25 0.0035 0.585 0.060 0.560 0 2030 0.049 0 82.00 0.0035 0.630 0.060 0.580 0 情景二 2020 0.0551 75.76 0.0033 0.540 0.069 0.536 0 2025 0.0466 80.73 0.0033 0.585 0.069 0.580 5 2030 0.0466 85.12 0.0033 0.630 0.069 0.610 0 情景三 2020 0.0522 79.02 0.0030 0.540 0.063 0.5674 2025 0.0441 84.20 0.0030 0.585 0.063 0.616 8 2030 0.0441 88.40 0.0030 0.630 0.063 0.650 0 情景四 2020 0.0551 76.49 0.0032 0.550 0.066 0.550 0 2025 0.0466 81.50 0.0032 0.600 0.066 0.600 0 2030 0.0466 86.10 0.0032 0.650 0.066 0.630 0 情景五 2020 0.0638 74.68 0.0037 0.550 0.063 0.530 0 2025 0.0539 79.57 0.0037 0.600 0.063 0.575 0 2030 0.0539 85.12 0.0037 0.650 0.063 0.600 0
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表 5 2030年黄河流域需水情景比较
Table 5. Comparison of water demand in the Yellow River basin in 2030
需水类型 现状延续情形 情景二 情景三 情景四 情景五 黄河综合规划 生活 生活需水量/亿m3 48.06 48.45 48.26 50.00 50.98 48.89 农业 农田灌溉需水量/亿m3 305.40 290.40 272.60 281.20 295.30 312.50 果林需水量/亿m3 21.27 20.22 18.98 19.58 20.56 16.80 牲畜需水量/亿m3 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 11.25 鱼塘补水量/亿m3 6.45 6.45 6.45 6.45 6.45 6.45 汇总/亿m3 340.40 324.40 305.20 314.50 329.50 347.10 生产 工业需水量/亿m3 115.10 98.80 84.00 94.50 106.30 110.40 建筑业及第三产业需水量/亿m3 13.71 13.96 13.66 14.52 16.17 16.30 生态 生态需水量/亿m3 37.93 41.08 39.12 40.08 38.97 24.65 总需水/亿m3 555.20 526.60 490.30 513.60 541.90 547.30
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