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Application of semipartial subtraction set pair potential method to the dynamic assessment of regional drought risk
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摘要: 为深入挖掘旱灾风险动态评估中评价样本与评价标准之间存在的不确定性问题，提出用半偏减法集对势这一新的联系数伴随函数，建立区域旱灾风险动态评估的半偏减法集对势方法（SSSPP），并应用于宿州市2007—2017年旱灾风险动态评估和风险脆弱性因子识别研究。结果表明：宿州市旱灾风险综合等级基本在2级以上，处于偏危险状态，通过半偏减法集对势值可判别2009、2010及2011年处于偏反势，为高危险年份。通过半偏减法集对势方法识别出了宿州市旱灾风险脆弱性指标有：相对湿润度指数、土壤相对湿度、土壤类型、单位面积水资源量、耕地率、农业人口比例、水库调蓄率、单位面积现状供水能力、单位面积应急浇水能力、灌溉指数、节水灌溉率，这11个指标是宿州市降低旱灾风险等级进一步需要调控的对象。Abstract: To gain the insights into uncertainty issues between evaluation samples and standards of dynamic drought risk assessment, we put forward a novel connection number accompanying function based on semipartial subtraction set pair potential, and constructed a dynamic regional drought risk assessment model built upon semipartial subtraction set pair potential (SSSPP), followed by its application to the dynamic drought risk assessment and vulnerability factor identification of Suzhou city in 2007—2017. The results show that the comprehensive drought risk level of Suzhou city was above level 2 basically, in the partial danger state, while the levels in 2009, 2010 and 2011 were in a partial negative potential (high dangerous years), judged by the SSSPP method. Drought vulnerability indicators of Suzhou city identified were: index of relative wetting degree, relative humidity, soil type, soil water content, rate of cultivated land per unit area, proportion of agricultural population, reservoir storage rate and water status quo of water supply capacity per unit area, emergency ability per unit area, and water saving irrigation index evaluation. Eleven indicators mentioned above were the objects that need to be further regulated to improve the drought risk level in Suzhou.
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图 1 宿州市旱灾风险系统样本值各子系统等级及综合等级趋势
Figure 1. Trend chart of each subsystem level and comprehensive level of Suzhou drought risk system sample values
图 2 宿州市旱灾风险各子系统指标联系数的半偏减法集对势趋势
Figure 2. Trend chart of semipartial subtraction set pair potential of index connection numbers of each subsystem in Suzhou
表 1 宿州市旱灾风险评估指标、标准等级及指标和各子系统权重
Table 1. Drought risk assessment indicators, standard grades, and weights of each subsystem and index in Suzhou
子系统 指标层 评价标准 指标权重 子系统权重 微险（1级） 轻险（2级） 重险（3级） 危险性子系统 x1,1降雨负距平百分率（%） ≤15 15~25 >25 0.069 2 0.329 0 x1,2年均降雨量（mm） ≥950 950~850 <850 0.057 4 x1,3相对湿润度指数（%） ≥−0.11 −0.11~ −0.24 <−0.24 0.049 3 x1,4单位面积水资源量占有量（万m3/ km2） ≥52.5 52.5~37.5 <37.5 0.057 0 x1,5土壤相对湿度（%） ≥73 73~70 <70 0.044 1 x1,6土壤类型 ≥0.6 0.6~0.4 <0.4 0.052 4 暴露性子系统 x2,1人口密度（人/ km2） ≤500 500~700 >700 0.046 8 0.192 0 x2,2耕地率（%） ≤35 35~45 >45 0.055 5 x2,3复种指数（%） ≤185 185~195 >195 0.042 6 x2,4农业GDP占地区生产总值比例（%） ≤25 25~35 >35 0.046 0 灾损敏感性子系统 x3,1农业人口比例（%） ≤62 62~77 >77 0.059 8 0.241 0 x3,2水田面积比（%） ≤22 22~47 >47 0.067 8 x3,3万元GDP用水量（m3/万元） ≤575 575~725 >725 0.061 7 x3,4森林覆盖率（%） ≥17 17~12 <12 0.051 4 抗旱能力子系统 x4,1人均GDP（元/人） ≥4 500 4 500~3 500 <3 500 0.030 3 0.238 0 x4,2水库调蓄率（%） ≥25 25~15 <15 0.053 2 x4,3单位面积现状供水能力（亿m3/ km2） ≥20 20~14.5 <14.5 0.037 8 x4,4灌溉指数 ≥0.85 0.85~0.75 <0.75 0.045 6 x4,5单位面积应急浇水能力(万m3/km2） ≥7 500 7 500~4 500 <4 500 0.027 7 x4,6监测预警能力（个/100 km2） ≥0.6 0.6~0.4 <0.4 0.018 8 x4,7节水灌溉率（%） ≥35 35~25 <25 0.025 1 
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表 2 宿州市2007—2017年旱灾风险评估样本值联系数及减法集对势、半偏减法集对势和评价等级值
Table 2. Connection number, subtractive set pair potential, semipartial subtraction set pair potential and evaluation grade of drought risk assessment sample values in Suzhou from 2007 to 2017
年份 样本联系数 减法集对势s1(u) s1( u )态势 半偏减法集对势s2(u) s2( u )态势 综合评价等级值 a b c 2017 0.287 0.404 0.309 −0.030 8 均势 −0.029 2 均势 2.021 2016 0.289 0.401 0.310 −0.028 6 均势 −0.027 1 均势 2.019 2015 0.241 0.407 0.352 −0.155 4 均势 −0.147 7 均势 2.109 2014 0.238 0.408 0.353 −0.161 9 均势 −0.153 9 均势 2.114 2013 0.257 0.395 0.347 −0.126 0 均势 −0.119 5 均势 2.089 2012 0.231 0.393 0.375 −0.199 8 均势 −0.190 4 均势 2.143 2011 0.225 0.391 0.383 −0.220 5 偏反势 −0.209 4 偏反势 2.157 2010 0.190 0.388 0.422 −0.322 2 偏反势 −0.306 8 偏反势 2.231 2009 0.215 0.399 0.385 −0.237 5 偏反势 −0.225 9 偏反势 2.169 2008 0.236 0.385 0.378 −0.195 8 均势 −0.185 6 均势 2.140 2007 0.287 0.363 0.349 −0.085 2 均势 −0.080 3 均势 2.061
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