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Characteristics of precipitation intensity regimes in the Rouyuanchuan and Heshuichuan watersheds of the Jing River
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摘要: 开展降水强度趋势变化研究对提高防洪减灾和水资源管理水平具有重要意义。基于柔远川1980—2017年9个雨量站与合水川1981—2017年10个雨量站的日降水量和小时降水量实测资料，采用MK趋势检验法，分析了最大1 h降水强度（
$ {I}_{\mathrm{h}} $ ）、最大1 d降水强度（$ {I}_{\mathrm{d}} $ ）及分级降水强度趋势变化特征。空间上，柔远川与合水川各站$ {I}_{\mathrm{h}} $ 、$ {I}_{\mathrm{d}} $ 空间分布差异均较大，$ {I}_{\mathrm{h}} $ 的空间变差系数均大于$ {I}_{\mathrm{d}} $ ，但合水川$ {I}_{\mathrm{h}} $ 、$ {I}_{\mathrm{d}} $ 的空间变差系数均大于柔远川；时间上，柔远川、合水川$ {I}_{\mathrm{d}} $ 的空间变差系数分别呈显著增大与减小趋势（$ \mathrm{\alpha }=0.05 $ ），增大与减小幅度分别为0.018/10 a与0.039/10 a；柔远川$ {I}_{\mathrm{d}} $ 极值呈显著性增大趋势，增大幅度为7.68 mm/(d·10 a)；柔远川分级降水强度变化不显著，合水川中雨与大雨的降水强度呈显著增加趋势，增加幅度为0.61 mm/(d·10 a)和1.29 mm/(d·10 a)。Abstract: Understanding the changes in the regime of precipitation intensity plays an important role in flood risk mitigation and water resources management. Based on the field data of daily and hourly precipitation from 9 rainfall gauge stations in the Rouyuanchuan watershed from 1980 to 2017 and 10 rainfall gauge stations in the Heshuichuan watershed from 1981 to 2017, the changes in the regimes of annual maximum precipitation intensity of 1 h (Ih) and 1 d (Id) and graded precipitation intensity are analyzed using the MK trend test method. Results indicate that:(1) Spatial distributions of Ih and Id are found quite different, with the spatial variation coefficient (CV) of Ih greater than that of Id, and CV of Ih and Id in the Heshuichuan watershed greater than that in Rouyuanchuan. (2) CV of Id in the Rouyuanchuan watershed is found to increase significantly (α=0.05) at a rate of 0.018/10 a while that in the Heshuichuan watershed is found to decrease significantly at a rate of −0.039/10 a. (3) The extreme Id values in the Rouyuanchuan watershed are found to increase significantly at a rate of 7.68 mm/(d·10 a). (4) It is found that no significant change of graded precipitation intensity happens in the Rouyuanchuan watershed while the precipitation intensity of moderate-grade rains and heavy-grade rains in the Heshuichuan watershed show significant increases at rates of 0.61 and 1.29 mm/(d·10 a), respectively. -
图 1 柔远川与合水川流域地形及雨量站分布
Figure 1. Location of rain gauge stations in the Rouyuanchuan and Heshuichuan watersheds
图 2
$ {I}_{\mathrm{h}} $ 与$ {I}_{\mathrm{d}} $ 极大值空间分布Figure 2. Spatial distribution of the maximum values of
$ {I}_{\mathrm{h}} $ and$ {I}_{\mathrm{d}} $ 
图 3 各雨量站
$ {I}_{\mathrm{h}} $ 与$ {I}_{\mathrm{d}} $ 分布Figure 3. Distribution of
$ {I}_{\mathrm{h}} $ and$ {I}_{\mathrm{d}} $ at rain gauge stations
图 4
$ {I}_{\mathrm{h}} $ 与$ {I}_{\mathrm{d}} $ 的变差系数$ {C}_{\mathrm{V}} $ 年际变化Figure 4. Temporal processes of coefficient variation of
$ {I}_{\mathrm{h}} $ and$ {I}_{\mathrm{d}} $ 
图 5
$ {I}_{\mathrm{h}} $ 与$ {I}_{\mathrm{d}} $ 极值年际变化Figure 5. Temporal processes of extreme values of
$ {I}_{\mathrm{h}} $ and$ {I}_{\mathrm{d}} $ 表 1 分级降水指标统计
Table 1. Statistical results of the precipitation indices on different grades
流域名称 分级/mm 年均雨量/mm 贡献率/% 年均天数/d 天数占比/% 降水强度/(mm·d−1) 柔远川 0~10 118 23.1 89.7 76.6 1.3 10~25 164 32.2 18.3 15.6 9.0 25~50 153 30.1 7.4 6.4 20.6 ≥50 74 14.6 1.7 1.4 44.9 合计/平均 509 100.0 117.1 100.0 4.4 合水川 0~10 100 18.7 91.7 70.9 1.1 10~25 193 35.8 26.0 20.1 7.4 25~50 165 30.7 9.5 7.3 17.4 ≥50 79 14.8 2.1 1.7 37.2 合计/平均 537 100.0 129.3 100.0 4.2 
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