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Analysis of dam failure trend of China from 2000 to 2018 and improvement suggestions
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摘要: 截至2018年底，我国已建成各类水库98 822座，总库容8 953亿m3。水库工程不仅是我国防洪体系的重要组成部分，更是优化水资源配置的关键工程措施。水库大坝一旦溃决将严重危及公共安全，从历史溃坝事件中吸取教训并分析溃坝特征规律，对提高水库安全管理和防灾减灾水平具有重要意义。在收集我国1954—2018年发生的3 541起溃坝事件的基础上，重点针对2000—2018年发生的84起溃坝事件，从空间分布、水库规模、坝高、坝型、溃坝原因、溃坝率等方面进行了详细统计分析，系统梳理了21世纪以来我国溃坝事件的规律趋势特征，主要包括：（1）气候变化背景下超标准洪水成为水库漫顶溃决的主因；（2）水库因工程质量导致的溃坝问题突出；（3）水库运行管理不当成为溃坝事件重要诱因；（4）西部地区溃坝率较其他地区仍然偏高。为进一步加强我国水库大坝安全管理，提出必须重视气候变化对水库大坝安全运行风险的影响、完善工程建设与运行安全监管体系、改善中西部地区大坝安全管理运行条件、兼顾水库安全管理工程措施与非工程措施等对策建议。Abstract: At the end of year 2018, the total number of built reservoirs in China reached 98, 822, with a total storage capacity of 895.3 billion m3. Reservoirs are not only important parts of national flood defense system, but also are key engineering measures to optimize the allocation of water resources. However, once a dam failure incident happens, it will involve major public safety. In-depth analysis of the historical data of dam failure cases is of great significance for preventing dam failure and improving the management level of disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the collection of 3541 dam failure cases that occurred in China from 1954 to 2018, this paper focuses on 84 dam failure cases that occurred from 2000 to 2018. Detailed statistical analysis of the dam failure cases is carried out from the perspective of spatial distribution, reservoir size, dam height, type, failure causes, and other aspects. The trend characteristics of dam failure cases since 2000 can be summarized as: (i) Over-standard flooding becomes the main cause of dam failure cases of overtopping; (ii) Dam failure cases caused by quality defects at different locations of reservoirs significantly increased; (iii) The dam failure rate in the western part of China is dramatically higher than in other regions; (iv) Improper operation and management of reservoirs has become an important reason of dam failure incidents. Based on the aforementioned analysis, suggestions for further strengthening the dam safety management are proposed including that more attention should be paid to the impact of climate change on reservoirs, the engineering construction and operation safety supervision system should be continuously optimized, the management and operation conditions in the central and western regions of China should be intrinsically improved, and engineering measures and non-engineering measurements should be taken into account simultaneously in the field of dam safety management.
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图 4 2000—2018年省际土壤可蚀性K值与平均溃坝率变化关系
Figure 4. Relationship between inter-provincial soil erodibility K
value and average dam break rate from 2000 to 2018 表 1 1954—2018年3个阶段的溃坝统计
Table 1. Dam break statistics of three stages from 1954 to 2018
阶段 年份 大型/座 中型/座 小(1)型/座 小(2)型/座 合计/座 占比/% 年均溃坝率/% 溃坝高发阶段 1954—1960年 64 156 129 349 10 0.0574 1961—1970年 27 156 407 590 17 0.067 9 1971—1980年 2 26 282 1 728 2 038 58 0.234 7 显著下降阶段 1981—1990年 4 46 214 264 7 0.031 7 1991—1999年 2 28 186 216 6 0.028 2 趋于稳定阶段 2000—2009年 5 9 34 48 1 0.005 5 2010—2018年 2 10 24 36 1 0.004 0 合计 2 130 687 2 722 3 541 100 0.062 9 注：年均溃坝率计算中水库总数（单位：座）取值分别为：86 852[12]（1954—1980年）、83 387[21]（1981—1990年）、85 120[22]（1991—1999年）、87 873[23]（2000—2009年）及98 822[1]（2010—2018年）。 
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表 2 溃坝坝型统计
Table 2. Statistics of dam types of dam failure cases
序号 一级分类 1984—1999年 2000—2018年 溃坝数/座 占比/% 溃坝数/座 占比/% 1 混凝土坝 12 0.35 1 1.19 2 浆砌石坝 33 0.95 1 1.19 3 土坝 3 221 93.17 74 88.10 ① 均质土坝 2 977 86.12 59 70.24 ② 黏土斜墙坝 11 0.32 ③ 黏土心墙坝 181 5.24 8 9.52 ④ 土石混合坝 19 0.55 1 1.19 ⑤ 其他 1 0.03 1 1.19 ⑥ 不详 32 0.93 5 5.95 4 堆石坝 31 0.90 1 1.19 5 其他 4 0.12 2 2.38 6 不详 156 4.51 5 5.95 合计 3 457 100.00 84 100.00
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表 3 1954—2018年我国溃坝成因统计
Table 3. Statistics on causes of dam failure cases in China from 1954 to 2018
序号 分类 溃坝原因 1954—1999年 2000—2018年 所有溃坝 运行中溃坝 所有溃坝 运行中溃坝 溃坝数/座 比例/% 溃坝数/座 比例/% 溃坝数/座 比例/% 溃坝数/座 比例/% 1 漫顶 超标准洪水 424 12.26 293 12.43 45 53.57 42 55.26 泄洪能力不足 1 348 38.99 832 35.30 2 2.38 2 2.63 2 质量问题 稳定问题 121 3.50 93 3.95 5 5.95 5 6.58 渗流问题 889 25.72 713 30.25 20 23.81 18 23.68 工程缺陷 281 8.13 163 6.92 4 4.76 4 5.26 3 管理不当 超蓄 40 1.16 32 1.36 2 2.38 2 2.63 维护运用不良 62 1.79 31 1.32 1 1.19 溢洪道未及时拆除 15 0.43 11 0.47 无人管理 51 1.48 38 1.61 4 其他 库区或溢洪道塌方 66 1.91 50 2.12 1 1.19 1 1.32 人工扒坝 81 2.34 58 2.46 工程设计布置不当 20 0.58 14 0.59 1 1.19 上游垮坝 5 0.14 2 0.08 其他 5 0.14 2 0.08 3 3.57 2 2.63 5 原因不详 49 1.42 25 1.06 合计 3 457 100.00 2 357 100.00 84 100.00 76 100.00
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