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Characteristics analysis and prediction of slope deformation of deeply-excavated expansive soil canal
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摘要: 膨胀土边坡滑坡具有长期性和反复性特点，加固处理后渠坡的长期稳定性仍值得关注。某长距离调水工程一膨胀土渠段渠坡虽采取了表层换填措施，但仍未阻断膨胀土与外界水汽交换，在通水运行两年后发生了较严重变形，采取了伞形锚加固和排水孔增设等处理措施。基于加固处理后的监测数据，通过主成分聚类分析法对渠坡变形测点分区，进而分析渠坡时空变形特征；在此基础上，选取典型测点，应用指数平滑法、自回归移动平均模型和多因素非线性回归模型对变形进行了分析和预测。结果表明：伞形锚加固处理后的渠坡变形经过近2个月调整后趋于平稳，现阶段主要表现为受外界环境影响下的波动；渠坡变形存在空间不均衡性，以原变形体为中心向两侧减小；渠坡变形主要受时效影响，降雨、地下水位和温度也有一定的影响。鉴于膨胀土变形滑坡的长期反复等特点，后续应继续加强巡查。Abstract: The landslide of expansive soil slope has the characteristics of long-term and recurrence, so the long-term stability of canal slope after reinforcement is still worthy of attention. In a long distance water diversion project, although the replacement measure for surface soil was adopted, the water vapor exchange between the expansive soil and the external environment was not completely blocked. After two years of operation, obvious deformation occurred, and then measures of the umbrella anchor reinforcement and drainage hole layout were taken. Based on the monitoring data of the reinforced canal slope, the temporal and spatial deformation characteristics were analyzed by the HCPC method (hierarchical cluster analysis on principal component analysis). On this basis, the typical point was selected, the exponential smoothing method, the autoregressive moving average model and the multi factor nonlinear regression model were applied to analyze and predict the slope deformation. The results show that the deformation of the reinforced canal slope tended to be stable after nearly two months of adjustment, and was mainly affected by the external environment factors and fluctuated slightly at this stage. The deformation of the reinforced canal slope was inhomogenous in space, and the deformation range decreased to both sides with the original deformation body as the center. The canal slope deformation is mainly affected by time dependent effect, as well as rainfall, groundwater level and temperature. In view of the long-term repeated characteristics of expansive soil landslide, the follow-up observation should be strengthened.
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图 2 三四级渠坡变形和裂缝分布（单位： m）
Figure 2. Deformation characteristic and crack distribution of the third and the fourth canal slopes (unit: m)
图 4 各测斜管表面测点位移过程线
Figure 4. Displacement records of surface measuring points of the installed inclinometer tubes
图 7 变形测点分区平面映射(单位: m)
Figure 7. Plane mapping of clustering zones of the deformation measuring points (unit: m)
图 8 805-3-m测点沿深度方向的位移典型时间过程线
Figure 8. Typical time history of displacements along depth direction of 805-3-m
图 9 指数平滑法分离得到的趋势项和波动项
Figure 9. Trend and fluctuation terms separated by the exponential smoothing method
图 10 ARIMA和回归模型拟合与预测效果
Figure 10. Comparison of fitting and prediction values between ARIMA and regression models
表 1 805-3-m测点表面位移与影响因子间相关性
Table 1. Correlation coefficients between 805-3-m and influencing factors
影响因素 805-3-m测点
表面位移影响因素 805-3-m测点
表面位移平均气温 0.422 时效 0.488 有效降雨量 −0.408 地下水位 0.373 渠道水位 0.065 
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