Characteristics analysis and prediction of slope deformation of deeply-excavated expansive soil canal
-
摘要: 膨胀土边坡滑坡具有长期性和反复性特点,加固处理后渠坡的长期稳定性仍值得关注。某长距离调水工程一膨胀土渠段渠坡虽采取了表层换填措施,但仍未阻断膨胀土与外界水汽交换,在通水运行两年后发生了较严重变形,采取了伞形锚加固和排水孔增设等处理措施。基于加固处理后的监测数据,通过主成分聚类分析法对渠坡变形测点分区,进而分析渠坡时空变形特征;在此基础上,选取典型测点,应用指数平滑法、自回归移动平均模型和多因素非线性回归模型对变形进行了分析和预测。结果表明:伞形锚加固处理后的渠坡变形经过近2个月调整后趋于平稳,现阶段主要表现为受外界环境影响下的波动;渠坡变形存在空间不均衡性,以原变形体为中心向两侧减小;渠坡变形主要受时效影响,降雨、地下水位和温度也有一定的影响。鉴于膨胀土变形滑坡的长期反复等特点,后续应继续加强巡查。Abstract: The landslide of expansive soil slope has the characteristics of long-term and recurrence, so the long-term stability of canal slope after reinforcement is still worthy of attention. In a long distance water diversion project, although the replacement measure for surface soil was adopted, the water vapor exchange between the expansive soil and the external environment was not completely blocked. After two years of operation, obvious deformation occurred, and then measures of the umbrella anchor reinforcement and drainage hole layout were taken. Based on the monitoring data of the reinforced canal slope, the temporal and spatial deformation characteristics were analyzed by the HCPC method (hierarchical cluster analysis on principal component analysis). On this basis, the typical point was selected, the exponential smoothing method, the autoregressive moving average model and the multi factor nonlinear regression model were applied to analyze and predict the slope deformation. The results show that the deformation of the reinforced canal slope tended to be stable after nearly two months of adjustment, and was mainly affected by the external environment factors and fluctuated slightly at this stage. The deformation of the reinforced canal slope was inhomogenous in space, and the deformation range decreased to both sides with the original deformation body as the center. The canal slope deformation is mainly affected by time dependent effect, as well as rainfall, groundwater level and temperature. In view of the long-term repeated characteristics of expansive soil landslide, the follow-up observation should be strengthened.
-
表 1 805-3-m测点表面位移与影响因子间相关性
Table 1. Correlation coefficients between 805-3-m and influencing factors
影响因素 805-3-m测点
表面位移影响因素 805-3-m测点
表面位移平均气温 0.422 时效 0.488 有效降雨量 −0.408 地下水位 0.373 渠道水位 0.065 -
[1] 殷宗泽, 韦杰, 袁俊平, 等. 膨胀土边坡的失稳机理及其加固[J]. 水利学报,2010,41(1):1-6. (YIN Zongze, WEI Jie, YUAN Junping, et al. Mechanism of slope slide of expansive soil and reinforcement for the slope[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2010, 41(1): 1-6. (in Chinese) [2] 钮新强, 蔡耀军, 谢向荣, 等. 南水北调中线膨胀土边坡变形破坏类型及处理[J]. 人民长江,2015, 46(3):1-4, 26. (NIU Xinqiang, CAI Yaojun, XIE Xiangrong, et al. Failure types of expansive soil slope in Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion and its treatment[J]. Yangtze River, 2015, 46(3): 1-4, 26. (in Chinese) [3] 陈生水, 郑澄锋, 王国利. 膨胀土边坡长期强度变形特性和稳定性研究[J]. 岩土工程学报,2007,29(6):795-799. (CHEN Shengshui, ZHENG Chengfeng, WANG Guoli. Researches on long-term strength deformation characteristics and stability of expansive soil slopes[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2007, 29(6): 795-799. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-4548.2007.06.001 [4] 包承纲. 南水北调中线工程膨胀土渠坡稳定问题及对策[J]. 人民长江,2003,34(5):4-6. (BAO Chenggang. On slope stability of expansive soil canal of Middle Route Project of S-N Water Transfer and countermeasure[J]. Yangtze River, 2003, 34(5): 4-6. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4179.2003.05.003 [5] 蔡耀军. 膨胀土渠坡破坏机理及处理措施研究[J]. 人民长江,2011,42(22):5-9. (CAI Yaojun. Study on failure mechanism of expansive soil canal slope and treatment measures[J]. Yangtze River, 2011, 42(22): 5-9. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4179.2011.22.002 [6] 程展林, 李青云, 郭熙灵, 等. 膨胀土边坡稳定性研究[J]. 长江科学院院报,2011,28(10):102-111. (CHENG Zhanlin, LI Qingyun, GUO Xiling, et al. Study on the stability of expansive soil slope[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2011, 28(10): 102-111. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2011.10.019 [7] 李青云, 程展林, 龚壁卫, 等. 南水北调中线膨胀土(岩)地段渠道破坏机理和处理技术研究[J]. 长江科学院院报,2009,26(11):1-9. (LI Qingyun, CHENG Zhanlin, GONG Biwei, et al. Failure mechanism and treatment technology of expansive soil slope of Middle Route Project[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2009, 26(11): 1-9. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2009.11.002 [8] 陆定杰, 陈善雄, 罗红明, 等. 南阳膨胀土渠道滑坡破坏特征与演化机制研究[J]. 岩土力学,2014, 35(1):189-196. (LU Dingjie, CHEN Shanxiong, LUO Hongming, et al. Study of failure characteristics and evolution mechanism of canal slope of Nanyang expansive soil[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2014, 35(1): 189-196. (in Chinese) [9] 龚壁卫, 程展林, 郭熙灵, 等. 南水北调中线膨胀土工程问题研究与进展[J]. 长江科学院院报,2011,28(10):134-140. (GONG Biwei, CHENG Zhanlin, GUO Xiling, et al. Research progress on the stability of expansive soil slope in the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2011, 28(10): 134-140. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5485.2011.10.024 [10] 李进前, 王起才, 张戎令, 等. 膨胀土膨胀变形试验研究[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2019(1):60-66. (LI Jinqian, WANG Qicai, ZHANG Rongling, et al. Experimental study on expansion and deformation of expansive soil[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2019(1): 60-66. (in Chinese) [11] 王国利, 陈生水, 徐光明. 干湿循环下膨胀土边坡稳定性的离心模型试验[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2005(4):6-10. (WANG Guoli, CHEN Shengshui, XU Guangming. Centrifuge model test on stability of expansive soil slope under alternation between drying and wetting[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2005(4): 6-10. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-640X.2005.04.002 [12] 郑东健, 顾冲时, 吴中如. 边坡变形的多因素时变预测模型[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(17):3180-3184. (ZHENG Dongjian, GU Chongshi, WU Zhongru. Time series evolution forecasting model of slope deformation based on multiple factors[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2005, 24(17): 3180-3184. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-6915.2005.17.028 [13] 何少其, 刘元雪, 杨骏堂, 等. 库岸堆积层滑坡位移的分量响应模式及多因子模型[J]. 岩土力学,2020,41(8):2773-2784. (HE Shaoqi, LIU Yuanxue, YANG Juntang, et al. A component response mode and multi-factor model for accumulation landslide displacement induced by reservoir[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2020, 41(8): 2773-2784. (in Chinese) [14] 谢向荣, 程翔, 李双平. 安全监测技术在膨胀土渠道监测中的应用[J]. 人民长江,2015,46(5):26-29. (XIE Xiangrong, CHENG Xiang, LI Shuangping. Application of safety monitoring technology in expansive soil canal[J]. Yangtze River, 2015, 46(5): 26-29. (in Chinese) [15] 徐峰, 汪洋, 杜娟, 等. 基于时间序列分析的滑坡位移预测模型研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报,2011, 30(4):746-751. (XU Feng, WANG Yang, DU Juan, et al. study of displacement prediction model of landslide based on time series analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2011, 30(4): 746-751. (in Chinese) [16] 王智磊, 孙红月, 尚岳全. 基于地下水位变化的滑坡预测时序分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报,2011,30(11):2276-2284. (WANG Zhilei, SUN Hongyue, SHANG Yuequan. Time series analysis of landslide prediction based on groundwater level variation[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2011, 30(11): 2276-2284. (in Chinese) [17] 张文胜, 程德虎, 张灏, 等. 深挖方膨胀土边坡伞形锚加固处理及效果监测[J]. 人民珠江,2017,38(9):84-87. (ZHANG Wensheng, CHENG Dehu, ZHANG Hao, et al. Slope anchor umbrella strengthening treatment and monitoring the effect of deep excavation expansion[J]. Pearl River, 2017, 38(9): 84-87. (in Chinese) doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2017.09.018 [18] 胡江. 特高拱坝运行初期变形监测预报模型及构建方法[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2020(5):63-71. (HU Jiang. Deformation forecasting model and its modeling method of super high arch dams during initial operation periods[J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2020(5): 63-71. (in Chinese) [19] HU J, MA F H. Zoned deformation prediction model for super high arch dams using hierarchical clustering and panel data[J]. Engineering Computations, 2020, 37(9): 2999-3021. doi: 10.1108/EC-06-2019-0288 [20] 刘祖强, 罗红明, 郑敏, 等. 南水北调渠坡膨胀土胀缩特性及变形模型研究[J]. 岩土力学,2019,40(增刊1):409-414. (LIU Zuqiang, LUO Hongming, ZHENG Min, et al. Study on expansion-shrinkage characteristics and deformation model for expansive soils in canal slope of South-to-North Water Diversion Project[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2019, 40(Suppl1): 409-414. (in Chinese) [21] KHASHEI M, BIJARI M. A novel hybridization of artificial neural networks and ARIMA models for time series forecasting[J]. Applied Soft Computing, 2011, 11(2): 2664-2675. doi: 10.1016/j.asoc.2010.10.015 [22] 顾冲时, 吴中如. 大坝与坝基安全监控理论和方法及其应用[M]. 南京: 河海大学出版社, 2006. (GU Chongshi, WU Zhongru. Theory and method of dam and dam foundation safety monitoring and its application[M]. Nanjing: Hohai University Press, 2006. (in Chinese)) [23] DE LIVERA A M, HYNDMAN R J, SNYDER R D. Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2011, 106(496): 1513-1527. -