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Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the drought-flood abrupt alternations over Haihe River Basin
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摘要: 研究海河流域旱涝急转的发生规律，可为海河流域防汛抗旱提供科学参考依据。利用海河流域159个气象站1961—2019年逐日降水资料，计算出标准化前期降水指数（SAPI），基于该指数根据旱涝等级标准和旱涝急转条件筛选出1961年以来的旱涝急转事件，分析海河流域旱涝急转频次和强度特征。结果表明：海河流域年平均旱涝急转频次为33次，基本上逐年代增加，最近10年平均值达37次。旱涝急转强度也呈上升趋势，2000年后增加至平均值以上，尤其是近10年呈现出跳跃式的增加，达到最大值。旱涝急转多发生在5、6月及9月中旬，盛夏期间发生的次数较少。旱涝急转强度呈单峰型分布，最大值出现在6月中旬到7月上旬，该时段对应的旱涝急转频次也较多，增加了洪涝灾害的风险。从空间分布来看，旱涝急转频次和强度在滦河河系南部地区、北三河系西部及徒骇马颊河中部等地区均为大值区，即这些地区旱涝急转出现频次高、强度大，因此，发生旱涝急转的风险较高。
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关键词:
- 海河流域 /
- 旱涝急转 /
- 标准化前期降水指数(SAPI) /
- 频次 /
- 强度
Abstract: The research on the occurrence regularity of the drought-flood abrupt alternation in Haihe River Basin can provide scientific reference for flood control and drought relief. Based on the daily precipitation data of 159 meteorological stations in Haihe River Basin from 1961 to 2019, the Standardized Antecedent Precipitation Index (SAPI) is calculated. Based on the SAPI, according to the drought-flood grade standard and drought-flood abrupt alternation conditions, the drought-flood abrupt alternation events since 1961 are screened out, and the frequency and intensity characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Haihe River Basin are analyzed. The results show that the annual average frequency of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Haihe River Basin is 33 times, which basically increases year by year, with an average of 37 times in recent 10 years. The intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation also showed an upward trend, and increased to above the average value after 2000; it showed a jumping increase with reaching the maximum value especially in recent 10 years. The drought-flood abrupt alternation occurred mostly in May, June and mid September, and less in midsummer. The intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation presents a single peak distribution, and the maximum value appears from the middle of June to the first ten days of July. The corresponding frequency of drought-flood abrupt alternation is also more in this period, which increases the risk of flood disaster. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the frequency and intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation are high value areas in the southern part of Luanhe River system, the western part of Beisanhe River system and the central part of TuhaiMajia River. That is to say, the frequency and intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation are high in these areas, consequently, the risk of drought-flood abrupt alternation is high. These areas may become the focus of flood control. -
图 1 海河流域气象站点及其高程
Figure 1. Distribution and altitude of meteorological stations over the Haihe River Basin
图 2 2000年和2012年SAPI指数与降水量的关系
Figure 2. Relationship between index SAPI and precipitation in 2000 and 2012
图 3 1961年以来海河流域旱涝急转频次和强度变化
Figure 3. Variation of drought-flood abrupt alternations frequency and intensity over Haihe River Basin during 1961
图 4 海河流域5—9月各旬旱涝急转强度
Figure 4. Ten days’ drought-flood abrupt alternations intensity over Haihe River Basin from May to September
图 5 1961—2019年海河流域旱涝急转频次和强度空间分布
Figure 5. Spatial distribution of frequency and intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternations over Haihe River Basin from 1961 to 2019
表 1 基于I SAP划分旱涝等级标准
Table 1. Classification of drought and flood grades based on ISAP
等级 ISAP范围 类型 1 2.0≤ISAP 特涝 2 1.5≤ISAP<2.0 重涝 3 1.0≤ISAP<1.5 中涝 4 0.5≤ISAP<1.0 轻涝 5 −0.5≤ISAP<0.5 正常 6 −1.0≤ISAP<−0.5 轻旱 7 −1.5≤ISAP<−1.0 中旱 8 −2.0≤ISAP<−1.5 重旱 9 ISAP<−2.0 特旱 
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表 2 SAPI识别与历史记载的干旱事件对比（以天津市蓟州区为例）
Table 2. Comparison of drought events identified by SAPI and historical records (Taking Jizhou District of Tianjin as an example)
年份 SAPI识别结果 历史记载 干旱起始日期 干旱结束日期 持续
天数/d1961年 4月6日 7月18日 104 蓟州春大旱，农田受灾2万hm2。 1968年 1月2日 1月11日 10 蓟州冬春夏连旱，农田受灾1 000 hm2。 2月16日 4月6日 51 5月6日 5月22日 17 6月15日 7月12日 28 8月25日 9月17日 24 1972年 3月23日 4月5日 14 蓟州大旱，2至7月中旬，降水量仅33.5 mm，
造成河干、井干、河渠断流。4月27日 7月19日 84 1975年 2月16日 5月3日 77 蓟州春旱，农田受灾1.2万hm2。 1983年 5月31日 8月25日 87 蓟州夏旱，农田受灾2.5万hm2。 1989年 6月19日 7月18日 30 蓟州夏季降水量偏少4成，农作物出现“卡脖旱”，
玉米等作物产量受到影响。8月2日 8月28日 27 2000年 6月14日 8月7日 55 蓟州6月降水量仅为20.9 mm，7月偏少6.5成，造成旱情严峻。
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表 3 蓟州站典型暴雨日及洪涝过程筛选结果对比
Table 3. Comparison of typical rainstorm days by observation and flood process selected by SAPI
实测单日最大降水量 SAPI识别洪涝事件 年份 日期 单日降水量/mm 起始日期 结束日期 1962年 7月25日 187.6 7月24日 8月5日 1966年 7月29日 139.2 7月13日 9月5日 1972年 8月4日 184.1 7月27日 8月20日 1978年 7月25日 353.5 7月25日 10月2日 1980年 6月6日 128.2 6月6日 6月20日 1982年 7月25日 167.7 7月25日 8月27日 1984年 8月10日 128.7 8月10日 8月29日 1996年 8月3日 123.8 7月23日 10月15日 2012年 7月22日 174.8 7月22日 8月13日 2016年 7月20日 135.7 7月20日 8月1日
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表 4 各年代5—9月各旬旱涝急转频次
Table 4. Drought-flood abrupt alternations frequency over Haihe River Basin from May to September in each age
单位：次 年份 5—9月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 上旬 中旬 下旬 上旬 中旬 下旬 上旬 中旬 下旬 上旬 中旬 下旬 上旬 中旬 下旬 1961—1969 28 2 1 3 2 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 1970—1979 32 5 3 5 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1980—1989 35 6 6 1 1 4 1 1 2 3 2 1 2 1 1 3 1990—1999 33 4 4 1 3 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 5 2 2000—2009 34 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 1 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 2010—2019 37 2 1 3 4 3 5 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 4 1
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