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Attribution of runoff attenuation in the Yongding River basin upstream of the Sanjiadian
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摘要: 20世纪70年代以来，永定河流域径流特征发生了巨大变化，下游常年处于断流状态。根据1956—1991年及2006—2018年永定河三家店以上流域各站的气象与水文数据，利用M-K检验和小波分析方法分析了永定河流域的气象要素及径流变化趋势，利用双累积曲线和基于Budyko假设的弹性系数法进行了径流减少归因分析。结果表明：①1956—2018年间永定河流域的降雨无明显增加或减少趋势，气温有显著上升趋势，蒸发能力略有下降，径流减少非常明显，达到99.9%置信水平。②永定河流域大部分站点的降雨和径流变化存在大概11或23 a的波动周期。③永定河10个水文站的降雨-径流双累积曲线均发生了2~4次较为明显的偏移，在20世纪的60年代中期、70年代初期、80年中期和90年代初期都发生了偏向径流的偏移，这表明在降雨量水平未发生明显变化的情况下，径流减少了。④永定河流域是强人类活动区域，弹性系数绝对值依次为：降水>下垫面参数>蒸发能力，人类活动对径流减少的平均贡献率约为95%。Abstract: The runoff characteristics in the Yongding River basin have changed enormously since the 1970s with part of the lower reaches drying up frequently all the year around. Based on the meteorological and hydrological data from two periods (1956-1991 and 2006-2018), the main influencing factors of runoff attenuation were analyzed using the M-K test and wavelet analysis. The attribution of runoff attenuation was performed using Double Mass Curve and Elastic Coefficient Method based on the Budyko hypothesis. The results illustrate: (1) during the years 1956-2018, rainfall in the Yongding River basin did not vary significantly, the temperature increased significantly, the evaporation capacity decreased slightly, and the runoff decreased significantly, reaching 99.9% confidence level; (2) the rainfall and runoff for most of stations have a fluctuation period between 11 and 23 years; (3) the double mass curves for 10 hydrological stations have shifted 4 times (mid-1960s, early 1970s, mid-1980s, and the early 1990s) which are all biased towards runoff. This indicates that the runoff has declined in spite of no obvious change in the rainfall level; (4) the Yongding River basin is a region affected by a lot of human activities. It should be noted that the absolute value of elasticity coefficient of precipitation is larger than the underlying surface parameters which in turn are larger than the evaporation capacity. Finally, the average contribution rate of human activities to runoff attenuation is about 95%.
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Key words:
- the Yongding River Basin /
- climate change /
- trend anlysis /
- runoff change /
- attribution analysis
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图 1 永定河流域（三家店以上）地理位置及水系
Figure 1. Geographical location and water system of the Yongding River Basin
图 3 永定河部分站点年径流统计量U变化
Figure 3. Variation of U of annual runoff of some stations in Yongding River basin
图 4 永定河流域部分站点双累积曲线
Figure 4. Part of double mass curve results in Yongding River basin
表 1 永定河流域各站气温蒸发变化趋势M-K检验结果
Table 1. Mann-Kendall test result for temperature and evaporation in Yongding River Basin
站点名称 控制面积/km2 起始年份 系列长度/a 气温变化趋势 蒸发变化趋势 气温突变年份 蒸发突变年份 丰镇 785 1956 47 0.049 4 −0.047 8 1989* 1983 孤山 2 619 1956 47 0.032 3 −0.015 9 1986* 2016 固定桥 15 803 1973 30 0.074 0 0.067 7 1972* 1958 册田水库 17 050 1961 42 0.052 5 −0.257 3 1985* 1974 石匣里 23 627 1956 46 0.050 3 0.037 1 1989* 1989 响水堡 14 507 1956 46 0.047 0 −0.358 9 1988* 2017 官厅水库 42 500 1956 47 0.039 1 −0.576 6 1986* 2016 注：带*号表示变化趋势明显，达到95%显著水平。 
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表 2 永定河流域各站降雨径流变化趋势分析结果
Table 2. Analysis of annual precipitation and runoff change trend in Yongding River basin
站点
名称起始年份 系列长度/a M-K检验 小波分析 突变点选取年份 降水突变年份 径流突变年份 降水突变年份 径流突变年份 降雨 径流 丰镇 1956 47 2012 1986* 2016(23) 2011(23) 2016 1985 孤山 1956 47 2016 1988* 1966(3) 2010(32) 2016 1988 固定桥 1973 30 2016 1986* 2016(23) 1980(29) 2016 1986 册田水库 1961 42 1973 1981 1988(32) 1973(11) 1982 1985 石匣里 1956 46 2016 1976* 1962(11) 1963(24) 2012 1986 响水堡 1956 46 2016 1983* 1962(9) 1970(23) 1962 1983 官厅水库 1956 47 2016 1982* 2016(23) 1962(23) 2016 1984 注：带*号表示变化趋势明显，达到95%显著水平；括号中数值为小波分析得到的变化周期(a)。
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表 3 永定河流域各站径流减少双累积曲线法归因分析结果
Table 3. Runoff reduction analysis through double mass curve method in Yongding River basin
站点
名称基准期 变化期 时段 年均
降雨/mm年均
径流/万m3时段 年均
降雨/mm理论年
径流/万m3实际年
径流/万m3年径流
减少率/%气候变化
贡献率/%下垫面变化
贡献率/%丰镇 1956—1983 390.2 3 723.1 1983—2018 412.6 3 936.9 932.3 76.30 −7.66 107.66 孤山 1956—1991 420.0 7 566.6 1991—2018 410.4 7 393.0 1 964.7 73.40 3.10 96.90 固定桥 1973—1985 427.0 25 694.1 1985—2018 455.4 27 404.2 3 676.0 86.60 −7.77 107.77 册田水库 1961—1971 476.1 52 563.2 1991—2018 410.4 7 393.0 1 964.7 93.10 15.50 84.50 石匣里 1956—1966 438.1 99 560.0 1991—2018 434.5 94 319.2 7 039.3 92.50 5.66 94.34 响水堡 1956—1964 439.6 64 276.7 1982—2018 420.9 61 536.9 10 651.3 82.70 5.11 94.89 官厅水库 1956—1970 424.2 151144.0 1991—2018 436.9 155666.0 9 863.1 93.70 −3.20 103.20
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表 4 永定河流域各站径流减少弹性系数法归因分析结果
Table 4. Runoff reduction analysis in Yongding River basin
参数 丰镇 孤山 固定桥 册田水库 石匣里 响水堡 官厅水库 基准期起点 1956 1956 1973 1961 1956 1956 1956 基准期终点 1985 1991 1986 1985 1986 1983 1984 基准期年均降雨/mm 389.4 421.0 421.3 454.4 419.4 406.8 405.2 基准期年均ET/mm 966.7 998.0 959.8 971.71 984.2 1022.4 1037.3 基准期年径流深/mm 45.2 27.7 14.1 21.9 25.6 34.6 26.5 基准期下垫面参数 1.64 2.14 2.80 2.61 2.20 1.90 2.80 变化期起点 1985 1991 1986 1985 1986 1983 1984 变化期终点 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 变化期年均降雨/mm 416.2 409.6 448.8 440.1 425.5 413.9 417.4 变化期年均ET/mm 964.4 1 003.7 966.0 968.3 985.7 1 008.1 1 023.2 变化期年均径流/mm 11.3 8.8 4.2 2.9 4.1 7.7 3.9 变化期下垫面参数 2.95 3.00 4.20 4.46 3.90 3.20 3.70 流域降水弹性系数 2.73 3.12 4.24 3.83 3.35 3.00 3.23 流域蒸发弹性系数 −1.73 −2.12 −3.24 −2.83 −2.35 −2.00 −2.23 流域下垫面弹性系数 −2.48 −2.83 −3.55 −3.17 −2.98 −2.78 −3.04 降雨变化贡献率/% −10.50 6.82 −18.42 5.13 −2.21 −2.84 −11.92 蒸发变化贡献率/% −0.23 1.00 1.39 −0.42 0.17 −1.52 −3.72 下垫面变化贡献率/% 110.73 92.18 117.03 95.29 102.04 104.35 115.65
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