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Spatio-temporal variations of water use in China from 1965 to 2013
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摘要: 气候变暖、人口增加、经济增长过快共同加剧了我国水资源短缺问题。对我国大陆341个行政区综合运用BFAST趋势检验法和空间自相关分析法，探究了1965—2013年用水量的时空演变规律。结果表明：中国用水量不断增加，用水量趋势变化的突变点主要在1990年后，突变后增加与减少并存，使用水量增速减小。中国用水量的分布存在空间集聚特征，基本以胡焕庸线为界，用水量的集聚度东高西低（新疆除外）。中国用水量的集聚区域在1995年前与灌溉用水量相对一致，集聚度高的地区分布在新疆和长三角区域；1995年后与工业用水量较为相近。工业和城乡用水量集聚度高的地区分布在东北、华北和南方，集聚度低的地区分布在西部，其中农村用水量分布的集聚效应最为明显。探究我国用水变化的时空特征可为水资源保护及用水效率的提升提供科学依据。Abstract: Climate warming, population growth and excessive economic development have exacerbated water scarcity in China. The spatio-temporal evolution of China’s human water use (341 prefectures) is explored, based on the methods of Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend and Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis. Results show that China’s human water usage was continuously increasing from 1965 to 2013, although a breakpoint was detected mainly after 1990. Increasing and decreasing of water use coexisted after the breakpoint year, thus resulting in a deceleration of China’s human water use. The distribution of human water use had spatial agglomeration characteristics, and the agglomeration of water use was high in the east and low in the west (except Xinjiang) basically in line with Hu Huanyong boundary. The agglomeration regions of human water use and irrigation water use were relatively consistent before 1995, and regions with high water use concentrations were in Xinjiang and Yangtze River Delta. But the agglomeration regions of human water use were more similar to the agglomeration regions of industrial water use after 1995. Regions with high concentrations of industrial and urban and rural water uses were distributed in northeastern China, northern China and southern China, and regions with low concentrations were in western China (largest agglomeration effect existed in rural water use). Exploring the spatio-temporal characteristics of water use in China could provide a scientific basis for water resources management and the improvement of water use efficiency.
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Key words:
- grid scale /
- water use /
- spatio-temporal variations /
- water resources
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图 2 中国用水量和各部门用水量变化趋势的空间分布
Figure 2. Spatial distributions of trend types of China’s human water use and sectoral water use
图 3 中国用水量和各部门用水量变化突变点的空间分布
Figure 3. Spatial distributions of break points of China’s human water use and sectoral water use
图 4 中国用水量和各部门用水量的Global Moran’s I指数
Figure 4. Global Moran’s I of China’s human water use and sectoral water use
图 5 基于中国用水量的LISA空间集聚图
Figure 5. Local indicators of spatial association based on China’s human water use
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