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Comprehensive assessment of environmental impact of dam breach based on set pair analysis and triangular fuzzy number coupling method
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摘要: 针对溃坝环境影响因素众多且存在不确定性问题，综合考虑河道形态、水环境等7个溃坝环境影响因素，建立溃坝环境评价指标体系和等级划分标准。运用集对分析方法处理溃坝环境影响评价过程中的确定性和不确定性问题，为更全面表达集合间的同、异、反关系，将原有的三元联系数扩展为五元联系数，进一步结合三角模糊数理论描述其差异度分量系数，构建集对分析与三角模糊数耦合溃坝环境评价模型。选取沙河集水库为典型案例，运用模型对溃坝环境影响程度进行评价，并与集对分析和模糊数学法评价结果对比，验证了所构建的耦合评价模型的合理性和有效性，为溃坝环境影响评价提供了一种新的途径。Abstract: This study mainly aims at the problem that there are numerous factors and uncertainties in dam breach environment. The index system and corresponding grade classification standards were established based on the comprehensive analysis of seven environmental factors of dam breach, such as channel morphology and water environment. Considering that set pair analysis deals with the certain and uncertain problems in the evaluation process well, in order to fully express the identity, difference and opposite relations among sets, the original connection number is extended to five element connection numbers and its difference component coefficient is further described in combination with triangular fuzzy number theory. Consequently, the model coupled with set pair analysis and triangular fuzzy number for assessing environment impact of dam breach was established. Taking Shaheji Reservoir dam as an example, the evaluation results of the established coupling model were compared with those of set pair analysis and fuzzy mathematics, which shows that the model is reasonable and effective, hence providing a new way for dam breach environmental impact assessment.
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表 1 溃坝环境影响指标含义及其属性划分
Table 1. Definition and attribute division of environmental impact index of dam breach
指 标 含 义 属性 A1 由于洪水冲刷导致的河道变化，即单位长度/宽度冲刷或淤积量 定量 A2 下游地表植被造成的影响，即土地受损率与严重性比值 定量 A3 洪水造成的污染物对下游水质的影响，即水质环境等级变化程度 定性 A4 下游地区土壤的有机物含量、生态指标等的变化程度，即土壤质量等级变化程度 定性 A5 洪水对下游的动植物的影响程度 定性 A6 下游一些具有污染性质的化工场污染源的排放对环境的影响程度 定性 A7 人居生态环境被破坏的程度，主要包括自然景观和人文景观 定性 
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表 2 溃坝环境影响指标分类及等级
Table 2. Classification and grades of environmental impact indexes of dam breach
指 标 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅴ 定量指标 A1 0~0.2 0.2~0.5 0.5~1.0 1.0~2.0 2.0~10.0 A2 0~0.2 0.2~0.4 0.4~0.6 0.6~0.8 0.8~1.0 定性指标 A3~A7 0~25 25~45 45~65 65~85 85~100
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表 3 沙河集水库大坝溃坝环境影响评价指标权重[9]
Table 3. Weights of the environmental impact indexes of Shaheji Reservoir dam breach[9]
指标 指标值 权重 联系数 指标 指标值 权重 联系数 A1 1.80 0.068 −0.680 A5 13.30 0.052 1.000 A2 0.78 0.078 −0.820 A6 84.10 0.025 −0.914 A3 49.50 0.260 −0.225 A7 27.80 0.017 0.759 A4 91.60 0.500 −1.000
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表 4 3种模型方法结果对比
Table 4. Comparison of the results of three methods
评价模型 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅴ 评价等级 集对分析法 0.982 5 1.730 5 7.067 8 25.405 7 6.275 9 Ⅳ 模糊数学理论法 0.036 0.121 0.155 0.337 0.351 Ⅴ 集对分析-三角模糊数耦合法 - - - - −0.630 Ⅴ
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