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Study on the interactive relationship between water resources and industrial upgrading of the Yellow River Basin
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摘要: 构建黄河流域水资源与产业升级综合评价指标体系，根据计算所得指数进行时空分析，运用面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型，通过格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应与方差分解等方法，对黄河流域八省区2010—2019年水资源与产业升级的互动关系进行实证分析，提出相应对策建议。结果表明：（1）黄河流域八省区通过优化水资源利用方式难以促进产业结构调整，需要寻找新的发展驱动力，提高产业链附加值，构建现代化产业体系；（2）黄河流域八省区优化水资源利用对提高产业环境友好程度产生促进效应，应着力推动黄河流域水资源可持续利用，建立黄河流域生态补偿机制；（3）黄河流域八省区提高产业环境友好程度对改善水资源状态起积极作用，应大力发展可再生能源，提升产业绿色化水平，恢复水体状态。Abstract: The comprehensive evaluation index system of water resources and industrial upgrading of the Yellow River Basin was constructed. Based on the indices from index calculation, a spatio-temporal analysis was performed. Using PVAR model, with Granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition, the interaction between water resources and industrial upgrading of the eight provinces in the Yellow River Basin over the years 2010 to 2019 was empirically analyzed. According to the analysis results, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were proposed. The results indicated that: (1) It was difficult for the eight provinces in the Yellow River Basin to promote the industrial structure adjustment by optimizing the water resources utilization pattern. It was necessary to find new driving forces of development, enhance the added value of the industrial chain, and establish a modern industrial system; (2) The optimization of water resources utilization of the eight provinces in the Yellow River Basin had a promoting effect on enhancing the industrial environmental friendliness. Great efforts should be made to promote the sustainability of water resources utilization in the Yellow River Basin, and ecological compensation mechanism should be established; (3) The improvement of industrial environmental friendliness of the eight provinces in the Yellow River Basin played a positive role in improving the condition of water resources. Vigorous efforts should be made to develop renewable energy, promote the green level of industry, and restore the status of water resources.
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Key words:
- Yellow River Basin /
- water resources /
- industrial upgrading /
- PVAR model
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图 1 2010—2019年黄河流域八省区WS指数、WU指数、IS指数、EF指数
Figure 1. WS index, WU index, IS index and EF index of the eight provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2019
图 2 黄河流域八省区各变量脉冲响应函数
Figure 2. The impulse-response function graph of all variables in the eight provinces in the Yellow River Basin
表 1 黄河流域八省区水资源与产业升级综合评价指标体系及权重
Table 1. Comprehensive evaluation index system and weight for water resources and industrial upgrading of the eight provinces in the Yellow River Basin
一级指标 二级指标 三级指标 指标代号 权重 指标性质 水资源 水资源状态 产水系数 WS1 0.123 1 + 人均水资源量/m3 WS2 0.302 2 + 水库蓄水量/亿m3 WS3 0.216 2 + 污径比 WS4 0.052 4 − 水资源开发利用程度/% WS5 0.306 1 + 水资源利用 农业用水量/亿m3 WU1 0.340 6 − 工业用水量/亿m3 WU2 0.221 0 − 万元GDP用水量/m3 WU3 0.130 2 − 万元工业增加值用水量/m3 WU4 0.140 9 − 城市工业用水重复利用率/% WU5 0.167 3 + 产业升级 产业结构 产业结构合理化指数 IS1 0.223 1 + 产业结构高级化指数 IS2 0.224 4 + 高新技术产业増加值占GDP比重/% IS3 0.307 4 + 服务业增加值占GDP比重/% IS4 0.245 0 + 产业环境友好 万元GDP工业废水排放量/t EF1 0.094 5 − 万元GDP能耗/（t标准煤） EF2 0.192 1 − 一般工业固体废物综合利用率/% EF3 0.285 6 + 一般工业固体废物处置率/% EF4 0.310 1 + 城市污水处理厂集中处理率/% EF5 0.117 7 + 注：“+”表示指标为正向指标，“−”表示指标为负向指标。 
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表 2 黄河流域八省区各变量方差分解结果
Table 2. The variance decomposition result of all variables in the eight provinces in the Yellow River Basin
变量 滞后期数 lnWS lnWU lnIS lnEF 变量 滞后期数 lnWS lnWU lnIS lnEF lnWS 10 0.928 0 0.010 0 0.024 0 0.039 0 lnIS 20 0.1250 0.130 0 0.646 0 0.099 0 lnWU 10 0.055 0 0.816 0 0.019 0 0.111 0 lnEF 20 0.113 0 0.015 0 0.056 0 0.816 0 lnIS 10 0.124 0 0.130 0 0.647 0 0.098 0 lnWS 30 0.925 0 0.010 0 0.024 0 0.041 0 lnEF 10 0.113 0 0.015 0 0.056 0 0.816 0 lnWU 30 0.055 0 0.814 0 0.019 0 0.112 0 lnWS 20 0.925 0 0.010 0 0.024 0 0.041 0 lnIS 30 0.125 0 0.130 0 0.646 0 0.099 0 lnWU 20 0.055 0 0.814 0 0.019 0 0.112 0 lnEF 30 0.113 0 0.015 0 0.056 0 0.816 0
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