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Analysis of precipitation and water level elements for typical floods in the Taihu Lake Basin
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摘要: 为加深对流域洪水运动规律的认识，开展了太湖流域2020年洪水与2016年、1999年和1991年3场历史洪水的对比分析，全面剖析了4场流域性洪水对应的降水、水位要素的异同。结果表明：在降水时程分布上，1991年、1999年和2016年致洪降水过程比较集中但存在间歇期，而2020年致洪降水可视为一次连续降水过程，累积雨量大但时程分布较均匀；在降水空间分布上，1991年与2016年洪水期降水为“北部型”降水，北部水利分区致洪雨量明显高于其他分区，1999年为“南部型”降水，南部水利分区致洪雨量明显高于其他分区，而2020年则为“全流域型”降水，各水利分区致洪降水差异相对较小。受降水过程影响，1991年、1999年和2016年洪水期太湖水位上涨过程中存在一定回落或平稳期，但2020年洪水期太湖水位表现为持续性上涨过程。2020年洪水期南部浙西区代表站最高水位明显超过了1991年和2016年，但北部湖西区和武澄锡虞区水位情势不及1991年、1999年和2016年严峻。总体上，2020年太湖流域洪水规模与强度低于1999年等年份，其灾害损失也较小，但对流域及区域设计暴雨、洪水计算和洪水调度仍具有重要参考价值。Abstract: In this study, we comprehensively compared the flood in 2020 with three historical floods in 2016, 1999 and 1991 in the Taihu Lake Basin, and analyzed the similarities and differences of the precipitation and water level elements corresponding to the four floods. It was found that in terms of the time distribution, the flood-causing precipitation processes in 1991, 1999 and 2016 were relatively concentrated but with intermittent periods, while the flood-causing precipitation in 2020 could be regarded as a continuous precipitation process, with a larger cumulative rainfall but a more uniform time distribution. In terms of the spatial distribution, the flood-causing precipitation in 1991 and 2016 were “Northern Type”, with precipitation in the northern sub-areas in the Taihu Lake Basin significantly higher than other sub-areas. However, the flood-causing precipitation in 1999 was “Southern Type”, with precipitation in the southern sub-areas higher than other sub-areas. However, in 2020, the flood-causing precipitation had different spatial distribution, with relatively small gaps among all the sub-areas. Influenced by the precipitation process, the water level of the Taihu Lake for the floods in 1991, 1999 and 2016 had a remarkable fall or a stable period. However, for the flood in 2020, it showed a continuous increasing process. During the flood period in 2020, the highest water level at the representative gauges in the southern sub area of Zhexi obviously exceeded that in 1991 and 2016, but the water level situation in the northern sub-areas of Huxi and Wuchengxiyu was less severe than in 1991, 1999 and 2016. In general, the intensity of floods in the Taihu Lake Basin in 2020 was lower than that in 1999 and other two years, and its disaster losses were also significantly smaller. However, the flood in 2020 was still of important value to the rainstorm and flood design and operation in the Taihu Lake Basin and its sub-areas.
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Key words:
- the Taihu Lake Basin /
- flood /
- rainfall /
- water level /
- concentration degree
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图 1 太湖流域水利分区及水位代表站分布
Figure 1. The sub-areas and water level representative gauges in the Taihu Lake Basin
图 2 太湖流域4场洪水典型区域特征降雨量
Figure 2. Statistics of daily precipitation corresponding to the four floods in the Taihu Lake Basin
图 3 4场洪水太湖水位与降水对应过程
Figure 3. Precipitation and water level of the Taihu Lake for the four floods
图 4 太湖流域河网代表站6—9月水位过程
Figure 4. Water level process of representative gauges in the Taihu Lake Basin from June to September
表 1 太湖流域降水和水位分析指标
Table 1. Analysis indices of precipitation and water level in Taihu Lake Basin
分析指标 指标定义与作用 计算公式 公式说明 基于信息熵的均匀度[13] 为逐日降水量信息熵值与理论最大熵值之比，用来描述日降水时程的均匀性。 $ {Q_i} = {P_i}/W,\; W{\text{ = }}\displaystyle\sum\limits_{i = 1}^N {{P_i}},\;i = 1,\;2, \;\cdots ,\;N $$ H = - \displaystyle\sum\limits_{i = 1}^N {({Q_i}} \ln {Q_i}) $ ，$ J = H/\ln N $ Qi为日降水量占降水总量的比例；Pi为日降水量；W为降水总量；N为研究时段天数；H为降水信息熵；J为基于信息熵的均匀度。J越大，则降水时程分布越均匀。 不均匀系
数[14]即变差系数，反映太湖或河网水位在
时程分布上的不均匀性。$ {C_ {\rm{V}}}{\text{ = }}\sigma /L $
$ \sigma {\text{ = }}\sqrt {\displaystyle\sum\limits_{i = 1}^N {{{({L_i} - L)}^2}{\text{/}}L} } $$ \sigma $为标准差；N为研究时段天数；Li为逐日水位；L为平均水位；不均匀系数越大，则水位时程分布越不均匀。 集中度
（PCD）[15-16]反映太湖流域降水或水位要素在
时程分布上的集中性。$ {P_{{\text{CD}}}} = \sqrt {R_{{x_i}}^2 + R_{{y_i}}^2} /{R_i} $$ R_{{x_i}}^{} = \displaystyle\sum\limits_{j = 1}^n {{r_{ij}}\sin {\theta _j}} ,R_{{y_i}} = \displaystyle\sum\limits_{j = 1}^n {{r_{ij}}\cos {\theta _j}} $ $R_{x_i} $，$R_{y_i} $分别表示降水或水位的“垂直”与“水平”分量之和；Ri为研究时段内累积降水量或累积水位值；rij为逐日降水或水位；θ为方位角，把整个研究时段视为一个圆，每候与圆上0°的夹角定义为该矢量的方向，一般取时程的一半所对应的方位角为0°，取值范围为（−π，π）。 
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表 2 太湖流域4场大洪水对应的降水过程概况
Table 2. Overview of the rainfall process corresponding to the four floods in the Taihu Lake Basin
年份 梅雨期 梅雨期长/d 涨水期 涨水期时长/d 极值降水量/mm 涨水期降水量
/mm最大1日 最大3日 最大7日 最大15日 最大30日 1991 05-19—07-13 55 06-08—07-16 39 62.2 140.7 219.4 285.3 492.9 554.2 1999 06-07—07-20 43 06-07—07-08 32 72.3 151.3 336.7 401.1 623.8 635.3 2016 06-19—07-20 31 05-25—07-08 45 61.5 135.5 195.2 342.1 437.2 583.8 2020 06-09—07-21 42 06-09—07-21 42 56.3 110.8 153.3 278.9 491.1 618.5
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表 3 4场洪水的涨水期降水时程分布特征值
Table 3. Statistics of precipitation time distribution during the flood periods of the four floods
特征指标 1991年 1999年 2016年 2020年 均匀度 0.80 0.79 0.84 0.88 集中度 0.18 0.23 0.12 0.08
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表 4 太湖流域4场洪水的涨水期分区降水特征值
Table 4. Statistics of rainfall for the sub-areas during the flood rising periods in the Taihu Lake Basin
年份 CV 北部降水量/
mm南部降水量/
mm北部与南部
降水量之比分区最大降
水量/mm分区最小降
水量/mm分区降水量
极差/mm1991 0.22 726.2 482.3 1.51 744.9 535.1 320.8 1999 0.15 525.3 704.4 0.75 769.7 480.5 289.5 2016 0.21 720.4 554.0 1.30 770.5 407.7 386.0 2020 0.10 663.2 603.8 1.10 711.4 642.4 188.1
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表 5 4场大洪水期间太湖水位过程
Table 5. Water level process of Taihu Lake during the four floods
年份 起涨
日期起涨
水位/m最高水位
出现日期最高
水位/m涨水
历时/d退水
历时/d平均涨水速度/
(cm·d−1)单日最大
涨水/cm平均退水速度/
(cm·d−1)单日最大
退水/cm1991 06-08 3.37 07-16 4.79 39 41 3.6 12.0 2.4 5.0 1999 06-07 3.00 07-08 4.97 32 35 6.2 19.0 3.4 6.0 2016 05-25 3.46 07-08 4.88 45 28 3.2 15.0 3.9 6.0 2020 06-09 3.16 07-21 4.79 42 24 3.9 22.0 4.2 6.0
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表 6 4场洪水的涨水期水位时程分布特征值
Table 6. Statistics of water level time distribution during the rising periods of the four floods
特征指标 1991年 1999年 2016年 2020年 不均匀系数 0.10 0.15 0.10 0.13 集中度 0.05 0.09 0.06 0.08
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表 7 4场洪水各水利分区代表站水位统计值
Table 7. Water level statistics of representative gauges in each subarea of the four floods
水利分区 代表站 保证水位/m 最高水位/m 1991年 1999年 2016年 2020年 湖西区 坊前 4.60 5.43 5.28 5.80 5.21 武澄锡虞区 陈墅 4.50 5.23 4.82 4.97 4.62 阳澄淀泖区 湘城 4.00 4.19 4.28 3.98 4.08 杭嘉湖区 嘉兴 3.70 4.11 4.31 3.78 4.04 浙西区 杭长桥 5.00 5.24 5.56 4.99 5.43 浦东浦西区 青浦 3.50 - 3.77 3.30 3.36
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